The choice is easier for futures traders … there are only about three dozen futures； in six or seven groups。 Beginners should stay away from the most volatile markets。 Take grains； for instance。 You should analyze corn； wheat； and soybeans； but trade only corn because it tends to be the slowest and quietest of the group。 Learn to ride a bicycle with training wheels before starting to race。 When it es to tropicals； analyze all； but trade only sugar … a big； liquid； and reasonably volatile market； leaving aside coffee and cocoa； which can move as fast as the S&P。 Needless to say； a beginner has no business with stock index futures； whose nickname on the floor is “rockets。” You may graduate to them in a couple of years； but at this stage； if you have an opinion on the stock market； trade SPDRs or QQQs； exchange…traded market indexes。
期货交易者的选择就简单了——只有30多个期货，一共才6，7组。新手应该避开波动厉害的市场。以谷物为例。你应该分析玉米，小麦，和大豆。但只能交易玉米，因为玉米市场是变化最慢的，最安静的。在骑自行车之前，要学会用辅助轮辅助骑车。如果是热带作物，分析所有的市场，但只交易糖——市场大，流动性好，波动合理，不要交易咖啡和可可，它们像标准普尔股指期货一样波动快。不必说，新手不能做股指期货，股指期货叫“火箭。”你也许需要几年才会别有，如果你到了那个境界，对股票市场形成了自己的看法，可以交易指数股，比如SPDRs（张轶注：跟踪标准普尔，行业指数和大盘）或QQQs（张轶注：跟踪纳斯达克100指数），或者股指期货。
How Far Back Should You Go in Your Research？ A daily chart on a puter screen will fortably show five or six months of history。 You’ll see less with candlesticks （see p。 xx）； which take up more space。 Daily charts alone aren’t enough； and you need weekly charts with at least two years worth of history。 Learning history prepares you for the future； and it could be helpful to glance at a 10…year chart and see whether that market is high or low in the long…term scheme of things。
你要研究到过去的哪一年？电脑屏幕上的日线图一般可以轻松地显示过去5，6个月的波动。用K线看会更少，因为K线占空间。日线图也不够用，你还需要看周线图，只少要看过去的2年。学习历史就是为了将来做准备，如果看看10年图，是有好处的，这样你就知道在过去，何时是高点，何时是低点。
Charts spanning 20 or more years are especially useful for futures traders。 Futures； unlike stocks； have natural floors and ceilings。 Those levels are not rigid； but before you buy or sell； try to find out whether you’re closer to the floor or the ceiling。
对期货交易者来说，跨度在20年或20年以上的图特别有用。期货和股票不同，它有自然的低点和高点。这些高低点并不是严格的，但是在你买或卖之前，尽量看看是你是否接近低点或高点。
The floor price of futures is their cost of production。 When a market falls below that level； producers start quitting； supply falls； and prices rise。 If there is a glut of sugar and its price on the world markets falls below what it costs to grow the stuff； major producers are going to start shutting down their operations。 There are exceptions； such as when a desperately poor country sells modities on the world markets to earn hard currency； while paying domestic workers with devalued local money。 The price can dip below the cost of production； but it cannot stay there for long。
期货的底价就是他们的生产成本。当市场跌到这个水平时，生产商就会退出，供应减少，价格上涨。如果糖供过于求，它的价格下跌到成本区，主要生产商就会停止生产。这叫期望，比如一个极度贫穷的国家，在国际市场上卖商品，为了挣到强势货币，而国内的工人只能得到贬值的货币。价格可能会跌到生产成本以下很多，但不会长久。
The ceiling for most modities is the cost of substitution。 One modity can replace another if the price is right。 For example； with a rise in the price of corn； a major animal feed； it may be cheaper to feed animals wheat。 As more farmers switch and reduce corn purchases； they take away the fuel that raised corn prices。 A market in the grip of hysteria may briefly rise above its ceiling； but cannot stay there for long。 Its return to the normal range provides profit opportunities for savvy traders。 Learning from history can help you keep calm when others are losing their heads。
大多数商品的最高价是替代品的成本。如果一个商品的价格太高，肯定有另外一个商品能替代它。比如，玉米的价格上涨，玉米是动物的饲料，用小麦喂动物可能更便宜。当更多的农民转向小麦，玉米的采购量下跌时，玉米的价格就没有上涨动力了。歇斯底里的价格上涨会超过过去的最高价，但不会长久。它会回到正常的价格区间，让聪明的交易者赚到钱。从历史学习可以帮助你保持冷静，而此时别人已经疯了。
Futures contracts expire every few months； making long…term charts difficult to analyze。 When it es to dailies； we look at the currently active month； but what about the weeklies？ Here we have to use continuous contracts； mathematical devices that splice several contract months。 It pays to download two data series … the currently active contract； going back about six months； and the continuous contract going back at least two years。 Analyze weekly charts using continuous data； and switch to the front month to study daily charts。
期货合约在几个月后就会到期作废，所以长线图很难分析。如果看日线图，我们可以看目前活跃的月份，但是怎么看周线图呢？我们需要使用连续的合约图，利用数学计算设备把很多合约图连接到一起。你需要花钱下载这些数据——当前的合约数据，半年前的数据， 2年前的连续数据。利用连续的数据分析周线图，并利用当前月的图分析日线图。
Do You Need Real…Time Data？ Real…time data flows to your screen tick by tick； as prices change in the markets。 A live screen is one of the most captivating sights on Earth； right up there with nude co…ed volleyball or a chain collision on an expressway。 Watching your stock dance in front of your face can help you find the best spots for buying and selling … or make you forget reality and swim in adrenaline。
你需要即时数据吗？即时数据在你的电脑屏幕上流动，和市场的价格波动一样。有即时波动的电脑屏幕是这个地球上最迷人的地方，和裸体男女排球，公路连环撞车一样迷人。看着自己的股票在眼前跳舞，能帮助你发现买卖机会——或者是让你忘记现实，追求刺激。
Will live data improve your trading？ The answer is “yes” for a few； “maybe” for some； and “no” for most。 Having a live screen on your desk； says a trader friend； is like sitting in front of a one…armed bandit。 You invariably end up feeding it quarters。
即时的数据会提高交易水平吗？对少数人来说，是的；对有些人来说，也许是的；对大部分人来说，不是的。看着屏幕上的即时波动，一个交易者朋友说，就像是坐在独臂的强盗面前。钱给光了，你就惨了。
Trading with live charts looks deceptively easy； while in fact it is one of the fastest games on the planet。 Buy at 10：05 A。M。； watch the price rise a few ticks； and take a couple of hundred dollars off the table by 10：15。 Repeat several times a day； and go home at 4 with thousands of dollars and no open positions。 Sleep like a baby and return in the morning。 Trouble is； you need perfect reflexes to do that。 If you pause to think； delay taking a profit； or quibble accepting a loss； you’re dead。
看着即时波动交易，看起来似乎很容易，其实这是这个地球上最快的游戏。早上10：05分，看着价格涨了一点点，到了10：15分，已经赚了几百元了。每天这样做几次，下午4点回家时就有了几千元，也没有过夜仓位。晚上像孩子一样安心睡觉，第2天早上又去了。问题是，你需要极好的反映能力。如果想的慢，没有及时兑现利润，或提前止损，你就死定了。
Most successful day…traders are men in their early 20s。 I’ve met very few successful day…traders over 30。 There are exceptions； of course … a friend in her 70s is a fantastic day…trader； but she is an exception who confirms the rule。 This game requires lightning…fast reflexes； as well as a certain thoughtless capacity to jump； that few of us preserve past the age of 30。
大部分成功的日内交易者都是20出头的男人。我见过少数30多岁的成功日内交易者。需要有期望，这是肯定的——我有一个70多岁的朋友也是出色的日内交易者，但她是特例。这个游戏需要闪电一样快的反应能力，还要有想都不想的出场能力，很少有人在30岁以后还有这个能力。
Beginners do not need live data because they have to put all their attention into learning to trade with daily and weekly charts。 Once you start pulling money out of the markets； it might be a good idea to apply your new skills to intraday charts。 When longer…term charts give you a buy or a sell signal； use live data not to day…trade but to dance into or out of positions。
新手并不需要即时波动数据，因为他们的重点是学习利用日线图和周线图进行交易。一旦你开始从市场赚钱了，再利用日线的波动变动测试你的新技巧。当长线图告诉你买卖信号时，利用即时波动，不是为了做日内交易，而是找买卖点。
Once you decide to use live data； make sure it’s real and not delayed。 Most exchanges charge monthly fees for real…time data； while the Internet is full of websites offering free data； delayed by 20 minutes。 That delay does not interfere with the entertainment value； but trading with it is suicidal。 If you need real…time data； be sure to get the best。
当你决定了用即时波动数据，一定要保证是真实的，而不是延时的。大部分交易所的即时波动数据是收费的，互联网上有很多免费的，一般延时20分钟。这种延时用来娱乐是可以的，但做交易就是自杀。如果你需要即时波动数据，一定要找到最好的。
ANALYSIS AND TRADING
分析和交易
Markets generate vast volumes of information： annual and quarterly reports； earnings estimates； corporate insiders’ reports； industry group studies； technology forecasts； weekly； daily； and intraday charts； technical indicators； trading volume； opinions in chat rooms； the never… ending discussion circles on the Internet。 With so much data； you soon realize your analysis can never be plete。
市场会制造大量的信息：年度和季度报告，收益，公司内部报告，工业集团报告，技术预测，周线图，日线图，分钟图，技术指标，交易量，聊天室观点，互联网上无穷无尽的讨论。这么多数据，你会无法研究完的。
Some traders who have lost money fall into paralysis from analysis。 They develop a quaint notion that if they analyze more data； they’ll stop losing and bee winners。 You can recognize them by their beautiful charts and shelves crammed with stock reports。 They will show you indicator signals in the middle of any chart； but when you ask them what they will do at the right edge； they only mumble because they do not trade。
很多交易者因为分析而亏钱。他们有个古怪的想法，他们以为分析的越多，他们就不会亏钱，就会成为赢家。你可以通过他们美丽的图表以及满柜子的投资报告来发现他们。他们会告诉你图中的指标信号，但是如果你问他们该怎么办时，他们会支支吾吾地说他们并不交易。
Analysts are paid to be right； traders are paid to be prof