，比如三角形和矩形。这个很容易上手，但他的缺点就是主观。当经典的技术分析人士感觉要涨了，他的尺子就情不自禁上涨；当他感觉要跌了，他的尺子情不自禁下跌。
Modern technical analysis relies on puterized indicators whose signals are much more objective。 The two main types are trend…following indicators and oscillators。 Trend…following indicators； such as moving averages； Directional System； and MACD （moving average convergence…divergence）； help identify trends。 Oscillators； such as Stochastic； Force Index； and Relative Strength Index （RSI） help identify reversals。 It is important to select several indicators from both groups； set their parameters； and stay with them。 Amateurs often misuse technical analysis by looking for indicators that show them what they want to see。
现代的技术分析依赖计算机的指标，它的信号非常客观。2个主要的类型是趋势跟踪指标和振荡指标。趋势跟踪指标，包括移动平均线，方向系统和MACD（指数平滑移动平均线），它们帮助确认趋势。振荡指标，包括随机指标，力量指数和相对强弱指标，它们帮助确认反转。从每组里面选择几个指标是非常重要的，设置好参数，长期使用。业余选手的缺点就是总是在找想要什么就显示什么的指标。
The main tool of technical analysis is neither the pencil nor the puter； but the organ that every analyst is supposed to have between his ears … the brain。 Still； if two technicians are at the same level of development； the one with a puter has an advantage。
技术分析的主要工具既不是笔，也不是电脑，而是所有分析者两耳之间的器官——头脑。当然，如果两个技术分析人士的水平一样，用电脑的要占优势。
Technical analysis is partly a science and partly an art … partly objective and partly subjective。 It relies on puterized methods； but it tracks crowd psychology； which can never be fully objective。 The best model for technical analysis is a public opinion poll。 Pollsters use scientific methods but need psychological flair to design questions and select polling techniques。 Price patterns on our puter screens reveal crowd behavior。 Technical analysis is applied social psychology； the craft of analyzing mass behavior for profit。
技术分析一部分是科学，一部分是艺术——部分主观，部分客观。它依靠电脑的方法，但它跟踪大众的心理，不会永远完全客观。技术分析的最佳案例是大众投票。设计调查题目的人需要用科学的方法，还要用心理学的知识设计题目，并选择投票方式。我们电脑屏幕上的价格模式反映了大众的行为。技术分析要利用社会心理，利用分析大众的行为赚钱。
Many beginners； overwhelmed by the sheer volume of data； fall into the trap of automatic trading systems。 Their vendors claim to have backtested the best technical tools and put them together into winning systems。 Whenever an excited beginner tells me he is planning to buy an automatic system； I ask him what he does for a living and what would happen if I came to pete with him after buying an automatic decision…making system in his field。 People want to believe in magic； and if that magic can also save them from working and thinking； they gladly pay good money for it。
很多新手，被数据的单纯性忽悠了，掉入自动交易系统的陷阱。卖软件的人号称已经经过了最好工具的测试，并把它融入了能赚钱的系统。不管什么时候，如果一个激动的新手告诉我，他要去买自动交易系统，我就问他以什么为生，如果我和他竞争，也买了这个自动交易系统，结果会怎么样。人们都愿意相信魔力，如果这个魔力可以不用他们工作，不用他们思考，他们愿意花大钱去买。
Successful trading is based on the 3 M’s … Mind； Method； Money。 Technical analysis； no matter how clever； is responsible for only one…third of your success。 You also need to have sound trading psychology and proper money management； as you’ll see later in this book。
成功的交易是建立在3个M的基础上的——思想，方法和资金管理。技术分析，不管多么聪明，只是对你的成功起3分之1的作用。你需要优秀的交易心理和优秀的资金管理，本书后面会讨论的。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee； written in the first half of the twentieth century； is considered the definitive book on classical charting。 Get any edition after 1955； because that was the last major revision of the book。 Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy offers the most thorough review of modern as well as classical technical analysis。 My first book； Trading for a Living； has large sections on both classical and modern technical analysis。
能告诉我如何开始吗？罗勃·D·艾德华与约翰·麦吉在1948年写的《股市趋势技术分析》被认为是图表分析的经典。1955年以后的版本都行，因为那是最后一次重大修订。约翰·墨菲的《金融市场技术分析》是最经典的技术分析书，有很多现代的分析方法。我的第一本书《以交易为生》用大量的篇幅谈了经典的和现代的技术分析。
When to Buy and Sell
何时买，何时卖
The secret of trading is that there is no secret。 There is no magic password to profits。 Beginners keep looking for a gimmick； and plenty of crafty vendors sell them。 In truth； trading is about work … and a bit of flair。 It is no different from any other field of human endeavor。 Whether you do surgery； teach calculus； or fly an airplane； it all boils down to knowing the rules； having the discipline； putting in the work； and having a bit of flair。
交易的秘密就是没有秘密。也没有赚钱的咒语。新手总是在寻找秘诀，正好有很多狡猾的生意人在卖秘诀。事实上，交易就是工作——还要有点天赋。它和人类的其它事业没有差别。无论你是做外科医生，教微积分，或者是开飞机，都需要你懂原则，有纪律，专心工作，还要有点天赋。
An intelligent trader pays attention to fundamentals。 He is aware of the key forces in the economy。 He spends most of his analytic time on technical analysis； working to identify trends and reversals。 Later in this book we will review key technical tools and put together a trading plan。
聪明的交易者关注基本面。他知道经济中关键的因素。他用大多数时间进行技术分析，以确认趋势和反转。我在本书后面会讨论技术分析工具以及交易计划。
Markets keep changing； and flexibility is the name of the game。 A brilliant programmer told me recently that he kept losing money but whoever was buying off of his stops must have been profitable because his stops kept nailing the bottoms of declines。 I asked why he didn’t start placing his buy orders where he now placed stops。 He wouldn’t do it because he was too rigid； and for him buy orders were buy orders and stops were stops。 A high level of education can be a handicap in trading。 Brian Monieson； a noted Chicago trader； once said in an interview； “I have a Ph。D。 in mathematics and a background in cybernetics； but I was able to overe those disadvantages and make money。”
市场充满了变化，灵活多变是这个游戏的名字。前不久有个出色的程序员告诉我，他总是在亏钱，他说不管是谁接了他的止损单，这个接单的人一定赚了很多，因为他的止损单总是在下跌趋势的底部。我问他，为什么不在你下止损单的位置下单买入呢。他不愿意，因为他很刻板，对他来说，买单就是买单，止损单就是止损单。在交易中，高学历可以成为障碍。布莱恩·莫尼尔森是芝加哥著名的交易者，有一次在采访中他说：“我是数学博士，有控制论的背景，但是在交易中，我能克服这些缺点并赚钱。”
Many professional people are preoccupied with being right。 Engineers believe that everything can be calculated； and doctors believe that if they run enough tests； they’ll e up with the right diagnosis and treatment。 Curing a patient involves a lot more than precision。 It is a running joke how many doctors and lawyers lose money in the markets。 Why？ Certainly not for lack of intelligence； but for lack of humility and flexibility。
专业人士总是要保证正确。工程师认为任何事情都可以计算，医生认为只要有足够的实验，他们就有正确的诊断和治疗方法。治疗一个病人需要的东西很多，不仅仅是精准。有个笑话说很多医生和律师在市场中亏钱了。为什么？当然不是因为不够聪明，而是不懂谦虚，不知道灵活应变。
Markets operate in an atmosphere of uncertainty。 Trading signals are clear in the middle of the chart； but as you get closer to the right edge； you find yourself in what John Keegan； the great military historian； called “the fog of war。” There is no certainty； only odds。 Here you have two goals … to make money and to learn。 Win or lose； you have to gain knowledge from a trade in order to be a better trader tomorrow。 Scan your fundamental information； read technical signals； implement your rules of money management and risk control。 Now you are ready to pull the trigger。 Go！
市场的气氛就是不确定性。图表中的信号很明显，但是当你走近时，用著名的军事史学家约翰·基冈的话说，你走进了“战争的迷雾。”这里没有肯定的事，只有奇怪的事。你要有2个目标——赚钱和学习。赢或输，你必须从交易中学习以保证你明天有进步。检查你的基本面消息，审视你的技术信号，贯彻你的资金管理原则和风险控制。这样你才能准备好扣扳机。行动！
PART TWO THE THREE M’S OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING
第2部分 成功交易的3个M
Buy low； sell high。 Short high； cover low。 Traders are like surfers； trying to catch good waves； only their beach is rocky； not sandy。 Professionals wait for opportunities but amateurs jump in； driven by emotions … they keep buying strength and selling weakness； bleeding their equity into the markets。 Buy low； sell high sounds like a simple rule； but greed and fear can override the best intentions。
低买高买，在高点做空，在低点回补。交易者就像冲浪者，都想找到最好的波浪，但是他们的沙滩全是石头，不是沙子。专业人士等机会，而业余选手由于情绪冲动，一头跳进——他们总是在最强的时候买，在最弱的时候卖，把资金献给了市场。低买高卖听起来是很简单的原则，但是贪婪和恐惧更能让人迷失。
A professional waits for familiar patterns to emerge from the market。 He may notice a new trend with rising momentum； indicating higher prices ahead。 Or he may detect the feebleness of momentum during a rally； indicating weakness。 Once he recognizes a pattern； he puts on a trade。 He has a clear notion of how he’ll get in； where he’ll take profits； and where he’ll accept a loss if the market turns against him。
专业人士等待市场出现相似的模式。也许他看见了新的趋势，有上涨动能，预示更高的价格。也许他发现了反弹的微弱，显示了弱势。当他看清了一个模式，他会交易。他很清楚如何进场，在哪里兑现利润，如果市场不好，他知道在何处接受亏损。
A trade is a bet on a price change； but there is a paradox。 Each price reflects the latest consensus of value of market participants。 Putting on a trade challenges that consensus。 A buyer disagrees with the collective wisdom by saying the market is underpriced。 A seller disagrees with the wisdom of the entire group； believing the market is overpriced。 Both the buyer and the seller expect the consensus to change； but meanwhile they defy the market。 That market includes some of the most