t the consensus to change； but meanwhile they defy the market。 That market includes some of the most brilliant minds and some of the deepest pockets on Earth。 Arguing with this group is dangerous business； and it has to be done very cautiously。
交易者赌价格的变动，但自相矛盾。每个价格都显示了市场参与者对价值的一致认同。进行交易意味着挑战这个一致的认同。买家不会同意集体的智慧，他相信市场被低估了。卖家不同意集体的智慧，他相信市场被高估了。买家和卖家都希望这个一致的认同会改变，但同时，他们在对抗市场。市场包括了一些很出色的思想和很大的资金。和他们争论是危险的，所以要认真做事。
An intelligent trader looks for holes in the efficient market theory。 He scans the market for brief periods of inefficiency。 When the crowd is gripped by greed； the newers jump in and load up on stocks。 When falling prices squeeze the fingers of thousands of buyers； they dump their holdings in a panic； disregarding fundamental values。 Those episodes of emotional behavior dilute the cold efficiency of the market； creating opportunities for disciplined traders。 When markets are calm and efficient； trading bees a crapshoot； with missions and slippage worsening the odds。
聪明的交易者寻找有效市场理论的漏洞。他扫描市场，寻找不有效的地方。当大众被贪婪俘虏时，新人会跳进来装满股票。当价格下跌，让上千的买家紧张时，他们在恐慌中抛股票，根本不管基本面。这些情绪紧张的行为稀释了市场有效理论，为有纪律的交易者制造了机会。当市场平静，有效率的时候，交易就变的有风险了，佣金和滑点亏损会让事情变的更糟。
Crowd mentality changes slowly； and price patterns recur； albeit with variations。 Emotional swings provide trading opportunities； while efficient markets chop up and down； offering no edge to traders； only piling up their costs。 Technical analysis tools will work for you only if you have the discipline to wait for patterns to emerge。 Professionals trade only when markets offer them special advantages。
大众的智力变化慢，价格的模式会反复出现，但有所不同。情绪的波动提供了交易机会，然而有效市场则削弱各种机会，导致交易者占不到便宜，只会堆积成本。只要你有纪律，专心等待特定的模式出现，技术分析工具就会对你有用。专业人士在市场提供了特殊的优势时才进行交易。
According to chaos theory； many processes … the flow of water in a river； the movement of clouds in the sky； the changes of prices in the cotton markets … are chaotic； with transient islands of order； called fractals。 Those fractals look similar from any distance； whether through a telescope or a microscope。 The coast of Maine looks just as jagged from a space shuttle as it does when you drop down on your hands and knees and look at it through a magnifying glass。 In most financial markets； the long…term weekly charts and the short…term 5…minute charts look so similar； you cannot tell them apart without markings。 Engineers have realized that they can achieve better control over many processes if they accept them as chaotic and try to capitalize on temporary fractals； the islands of order。 That’s exactly what a good trader does。 He recognizes the market as chaotic and unpredictable much of the time； but expects to find islands of order。 He trains himself to buy and sell without quibbling when he finds those patterns。
根据混沌理论，很多过程——河中的水流，天空中移动的云，棉花市场的价格变动——是混乱无序的，有时候会有短暂的有序，这叫分形。不管从多远来看，这些分形都很相似，无论是用望远镜，还是显微镜。如果你从航天飞机看，缅因州看样来像是突出的，当你爬下来用放大镜看，结果也一样。在大部分金融市场中，长期的周线图和短期的5分钟图看起来相似，如果没有标注，你根本分不出来。工程师觉得如果他们接受混乱无序的现实，并重点研究分形的有序，他们就能更好地控制很多环节。优秀的交易者也要这么做。他知道市场在大多时间是混乱无序的，也无法预测的，但是要等待有序的出现。要训练自己，当发现了特定的模式时，不要支支吾吾，要去行动。
Successful trading depends on the 3 M’s … Mind； Method； and Money。 Beginners focus on analysis； but professionals operate in a three…dimensional space。 They are aware of trading psychology … their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets。 Each trader needs to have a method for choosing specific stocks； options； or futures as well as firm rules for pulling the trigger … deciding when to buy and sell。 Money refers to how you manage your trading capital。
成功的交易需要3个M——思想，方法和资金管理。新手专注于分析，但是专业人士在3维空间操作。他们懂交易心理——他们自己的感觉和市场大众的感觉。每个交易者都需要有选择特定股票和期货的方法，这些原则要像扣扳机一样——决定何时买卖。资金管理就是如何管理自己的交易资金。
Mind； Method； Money … trading psychology； trading method； and money management … people sometimes ask me which of the three is more important。 It is like asking which leg of a three…legged stool is the most important。 Take them away one at a time and then try to sit down。 In Part 2 we focus on those three foundations of market success。
思想，方法，资金管理——交易心理，交易方法和资金管理——有时有人问我哪个最重要。这等于问三脚椅的哪条腿最重要。拿走一条腿，再坐上去试试吧。在第2部分，我们重点谈成功交易的3个基础。
CHAPTER FOUR MIND … THE DISCIPLINED TRADER1
第04章 思想——有纪律的交易者
Traders e to the markets with great expectations； but few make profits and most wash out。 The industry hides good statistics from the public； while promoting its Big Lie that money lost by losers goes to winners。 In fact； winners collect only a fraction of the money lost by losers。 The bulk of losses goes to the trading industry as the cost of doing business … missions； slippage； and expenses … by both winners and losers。 A successful trader must hop over several high hurdles … and keep hopping。 Being better than average is not good enough … you have to be head and shoulders above the crowd。 You can win only if you have both knowledge and discipline。
交易者进入市场，都有很大的期望，但只有很少的人赚钱了，大部分人都被洗出局了。上市公司向公众隐瞒真实的数据，却不断撒谎，造成输家的钱流入赢家的口袋。事实上，赢家只是拿了输家的一部分钱。很多人亏损的钱被这个行业的公司赚去了——佣金，滑点亏损和其它费用——赢家和输家都要付钱。成功的交易者要跳越过这些障碍——不停地跳。比平均水平高不算很好——你要站在大众的头上。如果你有知识，还有纪律，你才会赢。
Most amateurs e to the markets with half…baked trading plans； clueless about psychology or money management。 Most get hurt and quit after a few painful hits。 Others find more cash and return to trading。 We do not have to call people who keep dropping money in the markets losers because they do get something in return。 What they get is fantastic entertainment value。
大部分业余选手的交易计划根本不完善，根本没有心理和资金管理方面的计划，他们就进入了市场。大部人都会受伤，痛苦几次之后就会退出。其他人又找了一些钱再次进入市场。我们不必呼吁他们不要在市场亏钱，因为他们也有收获。他们的收获就是奇妙的娱乐价值。
Markets are the most entertaining places on the face of the Earth。 They are like a card game； a chess game； and a horse race all rolled into one。 The game goes on at all hours … you can always find action。
市场是这个地球上最能娱乐人的地方。就像打扑克，下棋，赛马一样。这些游戏随时都有——你永远有动手的机会。
An acquaintance of mine had a terrible home life。 He avoided his wife by staying late in the office； but the building closed on weekends； pushing him into the bosom of his family。 By Sunday mornings he could take no more “family togetherness” and escaped to the basement of his house。 There he had set up a trading apparatus； using the equipment loaned to him by another loser in exchange for a share of future profits。 What can you trade on a Sunday morning in suburban Boston？ It turned out that the gold markets were open in the Middle East。 My acquaintance used to turn on his quote screen； get on the phone （this was in the pre…Internet days）； and trade gold in Abu Dhabi！
我的一个熟人，他的家庭生活很糟糕。他在办公室待到很晚，以回避他的妻子，但是周末大楼不开放，没办法只好回家。在周日的早上，他不想和老婆见面，就躲到地下室。他有交易设备，是另一个输家赔给他的。他准备做期货赚钱。在波士顿郊区的周日早上，你能交易什么？原来中东的黄金市场是开放的。我的这个熟人就打开波动报价器，拿起电话（这还是互联网以前的事），开始交易阿布扎比的黄金！
He never asked himself what his edge was over local traders。 What has he got； sitting in a bucolic suburb of Boston； that they haven’t got in Abu Dhabi？ Why should locals send him money？ Every professional knows his edge； but ask an amateur and he’ll draw a blank。 A person who doesn’t know his edge does not have it and will lose money。 Warren Buffett； one of the richest investors on Earth； says that when you sit down to a game of poker； you must know within 15 minutes who is going to supply the winnings； and if you don’t know the answer； that person is you。 My Boston buddy wound up losing his house in a bankruptcy； which put a whole new spin on his marital problems； even though he no longer traded gold in Abu Dhabi。
他从不问问自己，他比当地人的优势是什么。他坐在波士顿的郊区，有什么东西是阿布扎比的人所没有的？当地人为什么要给他钱？每个专业人士都知道自己的优势是什么，但是你问业余选手，他就不知道。一个人如果不知道自己的优势，那么他就没有优势，他就会亏钱。沃伦·巴菲特，是全球最富有的投资者之一，他说当你坐下来打扑克时，你必须在15分钟内搞清楚谁是给赢家送钱的人，如果你不知道答案，你就是那个人。我的波士顿伙计最后亏损破产，输掉了自己的房子，虽然他再也不交易阿布扎比的黄金了，他的婚姻也没有好转。
Many people； whether rich or poor； feel trapped and bored。 As Henry David Thoreau wrote almost two centuries ago； “The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation。”
很多人，不管是富人还是穷人，都觉得自己深陷泥潭，烦躁。就像差不多100年前的亨利·大卫·索罗写的那样：“大部分人都在绝望中生活。”
We wake up in the same bed each morning； eat the same breakfast； and drive to work down the same road。 We see the same dull faces in the office and shuffle papers on our old desks。 We drive home； watch the same dumb shows on TV； have a beer； and go to sleep in the same bed。 We repeat this routine day after day； month after month； year after year。 It feels like a life sentence without parole。 What is there to look forward to？ Perhaps a brief vacation next year？ We’ll buy a package deal； fly to Paris； get on a bus with the rest of the group； and spend 15 minutes in front of the Triumphal Arch and half an hour going up the Eiffel Tower。 Then back home； back to the old routine。
每天早上我们在同样的床上醒来，吃同样的早餐，在