n record numbers。 Someone had to mind the babies of all those two…ine families； and the stock of KinderCare soared on the crest of a new social trend。
回到70年代，我买了一只叫爱心关怀公司的股票，这家公司开办了小孩照顾中心的连锁。他们把连锁店办的像麦当劳汉堡包一样，外观一致，服务可靠。爱心关怀公司迎合了婴儿潮时期出生的人需要托管小孩的需要。当时，我有一半的朋友都怀孕了。美国正在发生重大的社会变化，很多女性去上班。父母都上班，因为需要有人来照顾孩子，爱心关怀公司的股价随着这个新的社会趋势而飙涨。
AT&T used to have a monopoly on long…distance phone calls。 Then in the late 1970s a tiny brash upstart called MCI won a legal dogfight； allowing it to pete with AT&T。 The age of deregulation was upon us； and the stock of MCI … the first pany into the breach … sold for 3 presenting another great opportunity to hop aboard a new trend。
过去，美国电话电报公司垄断了长话业务。然后70年代末，一个叫美国微波通信公司起来了，赢得了和美国电话电报公司的法律诉讼，由此可以和美国电报电话公司开展竞争。新的变革正在开始，美国微波通信公司的股票——打破常规的第1家公司——股票卖3元，预示了一次新趋势的形成，又是一个伟大的机会。
A few years ago I flew into New York from the Caribbean with my friend George。 He became a millionaire by buying 30；000 worth of Dell stock before most people had heard of the pany … and unloading it at the top three years later with the help of technical analysis。 Sprawled in his first…class seat； George was perusing several investment advisories； trying to lock in on the next trend in Internet technology。 How right he was！ Within a year Internet stocks were flying； defying gravity。
几年前，我和朋友乔治在加勒比坐飞机到纽约。他在别人还不知道戴尔公司的时候，就买了30000元的戴尔股票——3年后，在技术分析的帮助下卖掉，成为百万富翁。躺在头等舱里，乔治因为听了有些投资建议，准备在互联网技术里面找到未来的趋势。他太正确了！1年后，互联网股票飞上天了，似乎脱离了地球引力。
That’s the lure of investing。 If you can buy a chunk of Dell at 4 a share and cash out at 80 a few years later； it is easy to fly down to a resort for a week rather than sit in front of a monitor watching every tick。 What are the disadvantages？ Investing requires a great deal of patience and an immense supply of self…confidence。 To buy Chrysler after it was rescued from the brink of bankruptcy or Internet search engines before anyone knew what those words meant； you had to have a huge level of confidence in your ability to read the trends in society and the economy。 All of us are smart after the fact； very few are smart early in the game； and only the tiniest percentage has the emotional strength to make a large bet on their vision and hold on to it。 Those who can do this consistently； like Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch； are hailed as superstars。
这就是投资的诱惑。如果你在4元大量买入戴尔的股票，几年后在80元卖掉，你就能很轻松地飞到度假胜地过一周，而不是坐在显示器前面盯着波动变化。劣势是什么？投资需要极大的耐心和超级自信。在克莱斯勒破产的边缘买入，在别人都不知道的时候买互联网搜索引擎的股票，这都需要极大的信心，还要有能力看出社会和经济的趋势。事后诸葛亮我们都会，很少人能在实战中如此聪明。只有极少的人能在自己的预测上下重注并坚持自己的信念。能够坚持这么做的人，像沃伦·巴菲特，彼得·林奇，他们就是超级巨星。
AN INTELLIGENT TRADER
聪明的交易者
Traders make money by betting on short…term price swings。 The idea is to buy when our reading of the market tells us prices are rising and sell when the uptrend runs out of steam。 Alternatively； we can bet on a decline and sell short when our analysis points to a downtrend； covering when the downtrend starts bottoming out。 The concept is simple； but implementing it is difficult。
交易者通过赌价格的短期波动而赚钱。如果市场告诉我们价格在涨，就买入；如果上涨趋势结束，就卖出。同理，如果我们分析趋势是下跌的，那么我们可以做空，当下跌到底时再回补。概念很简单，但是做起来很难。
It is hard to bee a good analyst； but harder to bee a good trader。 Beginners often assume they can make money because they’re smart； puter…literate and have a record of success in business。 You can get a fast puter and even buy backtested system from a vendor； but putting money on it is like trying to sit on a three…legged stool with two legs missing。 The two other factors are psychology and money management。
成为一个优秀的分析师是很难的，但是要成为一个优秀的交易者更难。新手总是认为他们能赚钱，因为他们聪明，懂电脑，有成功的生意经验。你可以用最快的电脑，你也可以买到测试有效的系统，但是实战就像坐在只有1条腿的3脚椅上。另外2个因素是心理和资金管理。
Balancing your mind is just as important as analyzing markets。 Your personality influences your perceptions； making it a key aspect of your success or failure。 Managing money in your trading account is essential for surviving the inevitable drawdowns and prospering in the long run。 Psychology； market analysis； and money management … you have to master all three to bee a success。
平衡你的思想和分析市场一样重要。你的性格会影响你的感觉，对你的成功或失败都会起到关键作用。资金管理可以让你的账户避免亏损，并长期赚钱。心理，市场分析和资金管理——要想成功，必须3者都会。
There are two main approaches to profiting from crowd behavior。 The first is momentum trading … buy when a ripple starts running through the crowd； sending the market higher； and sell when that ripple starts losing speed。 It is a challenge to identify a new trend while it’s still young。 As the trend speeds up and the crowd bees exuberant； amateurs fall in love with their positions。 Professionals remain calm and monitor the trend’s speed。 As soon as they find that the crowd is returning to its normal sleepiness； they take profits without waiting for a reversal。
有2种方法可以从大众行为中获利。第1个是动能交易——当波动在人群中蔓延，推高市场的时候买入，当波动开始失去速度的时候卖出。在新的趋势刚形成时，是很难判断的。当趋势加速时，大众就会激动，业余选手会爱上自己的仓位。专业人士则保持冷静，监视趋势的速度。当他们发现大众回到正常的昏头状态时，他们立刻兑现利润，不会等市场反转。
The other method is the countertrend strategy。 It involves betting against the deviations and for a return to normalcy。 Countertrend traders sell short when an upside breakout starts running out of speed and cover when a downtrend starts petering out。 Beginners love to trade against trends （“let’s buy； this market can’t go any lower！”）； but most get impaled on a price spike that fails to reverse。 A man who likes peeing against the wind has no right to plain about his cleaning bills。 Professionals can trade against trends only because they are ready to run at the first sign of trouble。 Before you bet on a reversal； be sure your exit strategy and money management are fine…tuned。
第2个方法是逆势策略。这意味着在背离处下注，以期望市场恢复到之前状态。交易者在向上突破减速时做空并在下跌慢慢结束时回补。新手很爱逆势交易（我们买吧，市场不会再跌了！），但是大多数人都被向上的临时反弹给钉死了，市场并没有反转。一个喜欢对着风撒尿的人没有资格抱怨自己交易单。专业人士可以逆势交易，因为他们会在有麻烦的时候立刻逃跑。既然你是在赌反转，要保证你的出场策略和资金管理有效。
Momentum traders and countertrend traders capitalize on two opposite aspects of crowd behavior。 Before you put on a trade； be sure to know whether you’re investing； momentum trading； or countertrend trading。 Once you’ve entered a trade； manage it as planned！ Don’t change your tactics in the midst of a trade because then you’ll contribute to the winners’ welfare fund。
动能交易者和逆势交易者根据市场大众行为的不同方面赚钱。你在交易之前，要知道投资、动能交易和逆势交易的区别。当你进场以后，要按照计划做事。不要在交易中改变自己的战术，否则你就为赢家提供了福利。
Amateurs keep thinking what trades to get into； while professionals spend just as much time figuring out their exits。 They also focus on money management； calculating what size positions they can afford under current market conditions； whether to pyramid； when to take partial profits； and so on。 They also spend a great deal of time keeping good records of their trades。
业余选手一直在想交易什么，然而专业人士则在尽力思考如何出场。他们也关注资金管理，计算合理的仓位，是否需要金字塔加仓，何时兑现利润等等。他们还要花大量的时间做交易记录。
The Efficient Market Theory
有效市场理论
A trader strains his mind； his soul； his entire being trying to take profits out of the market when an unsettling piece of news es down the pike … the efficient market theory。 Its main adherents are academics； who are fond of pointing out that prices reflect all available market information。 People buy and sell on the basis of their knowledge； and the latest price represents everything known about that market。 This is a valid observation； from which the efficient market gang draws the curious conclusion that no one can beat the market。 Markets know everything； they say； and trading is like playing chess against someone who knows more than you。 Don’t waste your time and money … simply index your portfolio and select stocks based on volatility。
当一个不确定的消息出现时，投资者会竭尽全力地去从市场中找到利润——这就是有效市场理论。最喜欢这么做的是学院派，他们认为价格反映了所有的市场消息。人们根据自己的理解买或卖，最后的价格代表了市场。这很明显，于是相信有效市场的人会下结论说，没有人可以打败市场。市场知道所有的事，他们说，交易就像和一个比你懂的多的人下棋。不要浪费你的时间和金钱——简单地做好资金配置并根据市场波动挑选股票。
What about traders who make money？ The efficient market theorists say that winners are plain lucky。 Most people make money at some point； before bleeding it back into the markets。 What about those who keep outperforming markets year after year？ Warren Buffett； one of the twentieth century’s great investors； says that investing in a market in which people believe in efficiency is like playing poker against those who believe it does not pay to look at cards。
赚钱的交易者呢？有效市场理论家说赢家是因为纯粹的运气。大多数人有时候赚了钱，然后又把钱亏给市场。那怎么解释每年的收益都比市场要好的人呢？沃伦·巴菲特是20世纪最伟大的投资者，他说相信有效市场就像是和一个人打牌，而这个人认为不看牌也能赢。
I think that the efficient market theory offers one of the truest views of the markets。 I also believe it is one of the largest pieces of theoretical garbage。 The theory correctly observes that markets reflect the intelligence of all crowd members； it is fatally flawed in assuming that investors and traders are rational human beings w