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Trend…following indicators include moving averages； MACD （moving average convergence…divergence）； Directional System； and others。 Big trends mean big money； and these indicators help us stay long in uptrends and short in downtrends。 They have built…in inertia that allows them to lock onto a trend and ride it。 That same inertia causes them to lag at turning points。 Their advantages and disadvantages are the flip sides of each other； and you cannot have one without the other。
趋势跟踪指标包括均线，MACD（指数平滑异同移动平均线），方向系统，等等。大趋势意味着很多钱，这些指标能帮助我们在上涨时做多，在下跌时做空。它们有内在惯性，这样可以跟踪并锁定趋势。这些惯性同样会导致它们在下跌时滞后。它们的优势和劣势是对应的，你不能只用一个，放弃另一个。
Oscillators include Force Index； Rate of Change； and Stochastic； among others。 They help catch turning points by showing when markets are overbought （too high and ready to fall） or oversold （too low and ready to rise）。 Oscillators work great in trading ranges； where they catch upturns and downturns。 Taking their signals when prices are relatively flat is like going to a cash machine … you always get something； although not very much。 Their downside is that they give premature sell signals in uptrends and buy signals in downtrends。
振荡指标包括力量指数，变化速率，和随机指标，等等。在市场超买（太高了，要跌）或超卖（太低了，要涨）时它们能帮助抓住反转点。在横盘时振荡指标表现好，它们能抓住上涨和下跌。如果价格走的比较水平，你就可以使用它们的指标——你总能赚点，但不多。在上涨时提前给下跌的信号，在下跌时提前给上涨的信号。
Miscellaneous indicators； such as Bullish Consensus； mitments of Traders； and New High–New Low Index； gauge the current mood of the market。 They show whether the overall bullishness or bearishness is rising or falling。
综合指标，包括情绪指标，持仓量报告，新高新低指数，他们计算市场的情绪。它们表明市场总体的多头或空头是上涨或下跌。
Indicators from different groups often contradict one another。 For example； when markets rise； trend…following indicators turn up； telling us to buy。 At the same time； oscillators bee overbought and start flashing sell signals。 The opposite occurs in downtrends； when trend…following indicators turn down； giving sell signals； while oscillators bee oversold； flashing buy signals。 Which should we follow？ The answers are easy in the middle of a chart； but much harder at the right edge； where we must make our trading decisions。
不同组的指标经常会互相矛盾。比如，当市场上涨，趋势跟踪指标上涨，叫我们买。同时，振荡指标认为已经超买了，开始发出卖出信号。下跌时相反，当趋势跟踪指标下跌时，振荡指标认为超卖了，发出买入信号。我们应该跟踪哪个信号呢？事后看图表时好像很简单，但是实战时很难，实战时我们必须自己做交易决定。
Some beginners close their eyes to plexity； choose a single indicator； and stick to it until the market whacks them from an unexpected direction。 Others create a homemade opinion poll； they take a battery of indicators and average their signals。 This is a meaningless exercise because its oute depends on what indicators you include in your poll； change the selection and you’ll change the oute。 The Triple Screen trading system； described below； overes the problem of conflicting indicators by linking them with different timeframes。
一些交易者在复杂面前闭上了眼睛，选一个简单的指标，就坚持用这个指标，直到市场突然把他掀翻。其他人自己搞家庭投票，他们选择一堆指标，把信号平均。投票选指标的方法没有含义，你改变投票，就改变了结果。后面谈到的三重滤网会利用不同的时间周期把互相矛盾的指标联系起来。
Time … The Factor of Five A puter screen can fortably show about 120 bars in an open…high…low…close format。 What if you display a monthly chart； each of whose bars represents one month？ You’ll see 10 years worth of history at a glance； your stock’s big picture。 You can display a weekly chart and review its rallies and declines for the past two years。 A daily chart will show you the action for the past few months。 How about an hourly chart； each of whose bars represents one hour of trading？ It will let you zoom in on the past few days and pick up short…term trends。 Want to get even closer？ How about a 10…minute chart； each of whose bars represents 10 minutes of market action？
时间——5的因素 电脑屏幕可以轻松地显示120条竹线，包括开盘价，最高价，最低价和收盘价。如果显示月线图呢，每个竹线代表一个月？你会一眼看见10年的数据，股票的巨幅图。你可以显示周线图，看过去2年的上涨和下跌。日线图会告诉你过去几个月的变动。小时图如何，每个竹线代表了1个小时？它会让你缩放看过去的几天，以找到短期趋势。更拉近点会如何？10分钟会怎么样，每个竹线代表了10分钟的市场波动？
Looking at all these charts； you quickly notice that markets can move in different directions at the same time。 You may see an upmove on the weekly chart； while the dailies are breaking down。 An hourly chart may be sagging； while a 10…minute chart is rallying。 Which trend to follow？
看看所有的图，你会注意到市场在同一时间向不同的方向波动。你也许会看见周线图上是上涨的，然而日线图上是下跌的。1小时图可能是下跌的，然而10分钟是上涨的。要跟踪哪个趋势？
Most beginners look at only one timeframe； usually daily。 The trouble is that a new trend； erupting from another timeframe； often hurts traders who do not look beyond their noses。 Another serious problem is that looking at the daily chart puts you on par with thousands of other traders who also look at it。 What’s your advantage； what’s your edge？
大部分投资者只看一个时间周期，通常是日线。问题是，新趋势从另外一个时间周期跳出来，经常伤害没有准备的交易者。另外一个严肃的问题是，看日线图让你和千万个其他交易者一样。你的优势是什么，你的强项是什么？
Markets are so plex that we must always analyze them in more than one timeframe。 The Factor of Five； first described in Trading for a Living； links all timeframes。 Every timeframe is related to the next higher and the next lower by the factor of five。 There are almost five （4。3 to be exact） weeks to a month； five days to a week； and close to five hours in many trading days。 We can break an hour into 10…minute segments and those into 2…minute bars。
市场很复杂，因此我们必须用不同的时间周期来分析市场。5的因素，在《以交易为生》中第一次提到，把不同的时间周期联系起来了。每个时间周期和更高一级，更低一级的时间周期相差5倍。5周（准确说是4。3周）构成一个月，5天构成一周，大部分交易日交易时间接近5个小时。我们可以把一个小时分成多个10分钟，把10分钟再分成多个2分钟。
The key principle of Triple Screen； which we will review later； is to choose your favorite timeframe and then immediately go up to the timeframe one order of magnitude higher。 There we make a strategic decision to go long or short。 We return to our favorite timeframe to make tactical decisions about where to enter； exit； place a profit target and a stop。 Adding the dimension of time to our analysis gives us an edge over the petition。
我们在后面要谈到三重滤网，它的重要原则是选择你最喜欢的时间周期，然后立刻转到更高一级的时间周期。然后我们做策略决定，是做多或做空。我们再回到最喜欢的时间周期做战术决定，何处进场，出场，兑现利润，止损。我们在分析时考虑这样的时间结构，就让我们有了竞争优势。
Use at least two； but not more than three； timeframes because adding more only clutters up the decision…making process。 If you are day…trading with 30… and five…minute charts； then a weekly chart is essentially irrelevant。 If you are trading market swings using a weekly and a daily； then the wiggles of a five…minute chart are no more than noise。 Choose your favorite timeframe； add the timeframe one order of magnitude higher； and start your analysis at that point。
至少使用2个，不要超过3个时间周期，因为更多的会造成分析混乱。如果你是做日内交易，使用30分钟和5分钟图，那么周线图就没什么关系。如果你用周线图和日线图做交易，那么5分钟图的噪音就不重要。选择你喜欢的时间周期，到上一级时间周期，开始分析。
Moving Averages
均线
Moving averages （MAs） are among the oldest； simplest； and most useful tools for traders。 They help identify trends and find areas for entering trades。 We plot them as lines on price charts； each of whose points reflects the latest average price。
均线是最老的，最简单的，最有用的工具。它们能帮助确认趋势，找到进场点。我们用价格图上的均线来表示，它们反映了最近的平均价格。
What is the reality behind the moving averages； and what do they measure？
均线后面到底是什么，它们计算的是什么？
Each price is a momentary consensus of value among market participants； a snapshot of the market crowd at the moment of a trade。 What if you show me a snapshot of your friend and ask whether he is an optimist or a pessimist； a bull or a bear？ It is hard to tell from a single photo。 If you take his snapshot from the same position for 10 days in a row and bring them to a lab； you can get a posite photo。 When 10 pictures are super…imposed upon one another； the typical features stand out； while the atypical fade away。 If you start updating that posite each day； you’ll have a moving average of your friend’s mood。 If you lay a string of posite photos side by side； it will be clear whether your friend is being happier or sadder。
每个价格都是市场参与者在某一时刻对价值的一致认同，是市场大众在交易时的快照。如果你把你朋友的快照给我，问我他是乐观者，还是悲观者，是多头，还是空头，结果如何？很难从一张照片来判断。如果你在同一个位置连续10天拍照，把它们拿到实验室，你会得到合成照片。如果把10张图放在一起，典型的特征就会出现，非典型的特征就消失了。如果你开始每天合成，你会得到你朋友的平均移动情绪。如果你把合成的照片一张一张地摆放，你会很清晰地看见你的朋友是高兴还是难过。
A moving average is a posite photograph of the market。 It adds new prices as they occur and drops old ones。 A rising moving average shows that the crowd is being more optimistic … bullish。 A falling moving average shows that the crowd is being more pessimistic … bearish。
均线是市场的连续合成照。它会自动计算新价格，并去掉老价格。上涨的均线表明大众越来越乐观——多头。下跌的均线表明大众越来越悲观——空头。
A moving average responds not only to the data but to how we construct it。 We must make several decisions to help separate the message of our moving average from the construction noise。 First； we need to decide what data we’ll use。 We need to select the width of our time window … wider for catching longer trends； narrower for catching minor ones。 Finally； we need to choose the type of moving average。
均线不但对数据有反映，对我们的设置也有反映。我们必须把均线�