在上涨的均线附近建仓做多。在下跌的均线附近建仓做空。用均线来区分“价值投资”和“傻瓜理论”。大部分上涨都会伴随着下跌，价格会回到均线。当我们在均线附近买入时，我们买的是价值，可以在均线下面一点设置止损点。如果上涨继续，我们就赚钱；但是如果市场下跌，亏损也不多。在均线附近买入能帮助利润最大化，风险最小化。
Figure 5。5 Moving Average … Major Trend
图5。5 均线——主趋势
An exponential moving average is slow but steady； like a directional indicator on a steamroller。 EMA works in all timeframes but shines on the weeklies； where it helps you stay with the major trend no matter how hard it tries to shake you off。 Trading in the direction of a weekly moving average should help you get ahead of many traders。 You can position yourself in the direction of the EMA and hold； or else trade in and out； using daily charts。
均线慢但是稳定，像方向指标。均线在不同的时间周期都可以使用，但在周线图上表现最好，能帮助你待在主趋势上，无论市场怎么洗盘都不必下来。在周线图上按照均线的方向交易，表明你比其他交易者强。你可以利用日线图上的均线建仓，或进进出出。
This 26…week EMA has tracked the entire glorious bull market in YHOO； from its obscure beginnings； to the breathtaking 250 peak； and back into the doghouse。 If you wake up in the morning； look at the weekly EMA； and trade in its direction； you will not be in too bad a shape！
本图利用26周均线跟踪了雅虎公司整个辉煌的上涨，慢慢地开始，达到最高点250，然后跌回原形。如果你早上起来，看着周线图上的均线，按照它的方向买入，结果肯定不差！
There are no perfect indicators； and an EMA has its share of difficulties when markets go flat。 When the EMA starts to quiver； as it did in 1999； it is time to stand aside or trade short term； not counting on a major trend。
没有完美的指标，当市场走平时均线的缺点就暴露了。当均线开始振荡时，就像1999年，此时最好观望，或做短线，不要指望有大趋势。
Notice the three tails in YHOO （and the fourth； not as pure as the first three）。 Every time there was a tail； the price got halved within weeks。
注意雅虎的3条尾巴（第4条不明显）。只要出现了尾巴，股价在数周内就跌了一半。
At the right edge of the chart prices are flat and EMA is declining。 Prices are closer to the bottom than they are to the top； but there is no rush to buy。 Let the EMA flatten out and tick up before positioning for a new major bull move。
在图的右边，价格走平，均线在下跌。价格接近底部，但没有必要冲动去买。等均线走平并上涨，再开始进仓，等待上涨。
Figure 5。6 Value Trades and Greater Fool Theory Trades
图5。6 价值交易和傻瓜理论（张轶注：本书中的价值就是指均值，不要理解错了）
When you buy near a rising moving average； you buy value （points D and F）。 Waiting for such opportunities requires patience； but it is infinitely safer than chasing rallies。 Those who buy high above the EMA pay above value； hoping to meet a greater fool who will pay them even more。 Anxious traders who buy near the tops （points C and E） get shaken out； or else they tensely wait to get out at breakeven。
当你在均线附近买入，你买的是价值（D点和F点）。等待这样的机会需要耐心，但绝对比追高安全。在均线之上太高的地方买的人，希望能等到傻瓜，其实是要自己买单的。焦急的交易者在高点买入（C点和E点），会被洗出来，或者是焦急地等待不亏不赚时出场。
Many stocks and futures have typical behavior patterns； and you should try to identify them and use them。 At the time of this writing； EBAY likes to have kangaroo tails （A； B； C； and E）。 The C tail had the most classical shape； but others worked also。 Knowing what pattern to expect helps you recognize it a little sooner when it appears。
很多股票和期货有典型的行为模式，你应该尽量确认和使用它们。在写这个的时候，易贝股票准备出现代鼠尾巴（A，B，C和E）。C尾巴是最经典的形状，其它几个则一般。如果你知道你在等待什么模式，这样当它出现时你能很快就认出来。
At the right edge of the chart the EMA has stopped rising and begun to flutter。 The bull move is over。 If you are a trend trader； it is time to move over to other； trending stocks。 Keep an eye on EBAY； waiting for a new trend to emerge。
在图的右边，均线停止上涨，开始振荡。上涨结束了。如果你是趋势交易者，此时应该换股票了，换到有趋势的股票。同时盯着易贝，等它形成新的趋势。
If we buy high above the EMA； our actions say； “I am a fool； I am overpaying； but I hope to meet a greater fool down the road who’ll pay me even more。” Betting on the greater fool theory is a poor idea。 There are very few fools in the markets。 Financial markets do not attract foolish people； and counting on them is a losing proposition。
如果我们在均线上面很高的地方买，等于在说：“我是傻瓜，我买贵了，但是我希望有另外一个傻瓜用更贵的价格买走。”用傻瓜理论来赌是糟糕的，期望有傻瓜接盘，这是失败的计划。
There are times when wild rallies in high…flying stocks seem to vindicate the greater fool theory。 Stocks with no assets or earnings can fly on hot air。 A value trader who feels he is missing those spectacular moves has a choice。 He can stick to his method； soberly saying； “Can’t catch them all。” Or he may decide； “When living with the wolves； howl like a wolf” and start buying upside breakouts。 If you do that； remember； you are now engaged in greater fool theory trading and the only asset separating you from the manic crowd is your risk control … your stops and money management。
有时候，股票飙升，似乎违反了傻瓜理论。没有资金或收益的股票可以飞的很高。价值交易者觉得自己错过了大波动。他可以坚持自己的方法，清醒地说：“不能追了。”或者他可以决定：“既然和狼一起生活，就要像狼一样嚎叫。”他开始在突破出买入。如果你这么做，记住，你在根据傻瓜理论交易，能把你和疯狂大众分开的唯一方法是——你的止损和资金管理。
The same rules apply to shorting in downtrends。 When you go short on a rally to the EMA； you are selling value … before the market reverses and starts destroying value again。 A greater fool theorist shorts far below the EMA … the farther away； the greater the fool。
在下跌趋势做空时也可以用同样的原则。当你在反弹时做空，你在卖出价格——当市场反弹时，再次摧毁价值。傻瓜理论实践者在均线下面很低的地方做空——越低越傻。
Use a system of dual moving averages to identify trends and enter positions。 You may select an EMA that tracks your market well； but it moves so explosively that prices never react back to that EMA； denying you a chance to put on a value trade。 To solve this problem； you can add a second moving average。 Use the longer EMA to indicate the trend； and the shorter to find entry points。
利用双线系统去确认趋势和进场点。也许你使用一条均线跟踪市场，效果不错，但是当市场飙涨时，价格根本不回到均线，你无法做价值交易。为了解决这个问题，你可以再加一条均线。用长期均线来指明趋势，用短期均线找到进场点。
Suppose you find that a 22…day EMA does a good job identifying trends in your market。 Plot it； but then divide its length in half and plot an 11…day EMA on the same screen in a different color。 Continue to use the 22…day EMA to identify bull and bear moves； but use pullbacks to the shorter EMA to identify entry points。
假如你发现22日均线可以很好地确认市场趋势。可以用它画图，还可以把它对半变成11日均线，2者可以用在同一个屏幕上，用不同的颜色区分。继续使用22日均线确认上涨和下跌的波动，但是用回调到11日均线来确认进场点。
Moving averages help identify trends and decide whether to trade long or short。 They help mark value areas for entering trades。 To find exit points； we turn to our next tool； channels on moving averages。
均线可以帮助确认趋势，决定是否做多或做空。它们能帮助指出价值区域，以方便进场交易。要找到出场点，我们会谈下一个工具，均线的通道。
Channels
通道
Markets are manic…depressive beasts。 They rise in powerful rallies； only to collapse in breathtaking declines。 A stock catches the public’s fancy； shoots up 20 points one day； and then slides 24 points down the next。 What drives those moves？ Fundamental values change slowly； but wavesof greed； fear； optimism； and despair drive prices up and down。
市场是疯狂的野兽。它们有力的飙涨，只是为了窒息的崩跌。一只股票吸引了大家，第一天涨了20点，第二天又跌了24点。是谁在推动市场？基本面的价值变化慢，但是贪婪，恐惧，乐观，绝望会把价格搞的上上下下。
How can you tell when a market has reached an undervalued or overvalued level； a zone for buying or selling？ Market technicians can use channels to find those levels。 A channel； or an envelope； consists of two lines； one above and one below a moving average。 There are two main types of channels： straight envelopes and standard deviation channels； also known as Bollinger bands。
你如何判断市场已经到了低估或高估的水平，哪个区域适合买卖？技术派用通道来找到这个水平。通道，或包络线，包括2条线，分别在均线的上面或下面。有2种类型的通道：包络线和标准背离通道，也叫布林通道。
In Bollinger bands the spread between the upper and lower lines keeps changing in response to volatility。 When volatility rises； Bollinger bands spread wide； but when markets bee sleepy； those bands start squeezing the moving average。 This feature makes them useful for options traders since volatility drives options prices。 In a nutshell； when Bollinger bands bee narrow； volatility is low； and options should be bought。 When they swing far apart； volatility is high； and options should be sold or written。
布林通道上线和下线之间的空间会随着波动而不同。当波动大时，空间变宽；但是当市场沉静时，空间就和均线挤到一起了。这个特点对期权交易者有用，因为波动会推动期权价格。总体说，当布林通道空间变窄时，波动就小，应该买期权。当布林通道空间变宽时，波动就大，应该卖期权，或者发行期权。
Traders of stocks and futures are better off with straight channels or envelopes。 They keep a steady distance from a moving average； providing steadier price targets。 Draw both lines a certain percentage above or below the EMA。 If you use dual moving averages； draw channel lines parallel to the longer one。
股票和期货交易者最好使用直接通道或包络线。它们和均线保持稳定的距离，提供了稳定的价格目标。它们在均线上面或下面一定比率的地方画线。如果你用双线，在比较长的均线附近画线。
A moving average reflects the average consensus of value； but what is the meaning of a channel？ The upper channel line reflects the power of bulls to push prices above the average consensus of value。 It marks the normal limit of market optimism。 The lower channel line reflects the power of bears to push prices below the average consensus of value。 It marks the normal limit of market pessimism。 A well…drawn channel helps diagnose mania and depression。 Most software programs draw channels according to this formula：
均线反映了对�