《走进我的交易室 中英对照版》

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走进我的交易室 中英对照版- 第35部分


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如何给自己打分 想象2个大学朋友。2人有相似的能力和背景,但其中一个每周考试一次,另外一个期末才考试。其它因素都是一样的,他们中的哪一个有可能考试时得高分?等期末考试的,或者是每周都考试的?
Most educational systems test students at regular intervals。 Testing prompts people to fill the gaps in their knowledge。 Students who take tests throughout the year tend to do better on their finals。 Frequent tests help improve performance。
大部分教育系统每隔一段时间给学生举行一次考试。考试能帮助人们弥补知识空缺。在一年内不断参加测试的学生在期末考试时会表现的比较好。频繁的测试能提高成绩。
Markets keep testing us; only most traders don’t bother to look up their grades。 They gloat over profits or trash confirmation slips for losing trades。 Neither bragging nor beating yourself makes you a better trader。
市场在不停地测试我们,但是大多数交易者都不知道去看看自己的成绩。有利润时他们贪婪,亏损时他们把交易确认单当垃圾扔了。吹牛和自我惩罚都不能让你成为好的交易者。
The market grades every trade and posts results on a wall; only most traders have no clue where to look。 Some count money; but that’s a very crude measure; which does not pare performance in different markets at different prices。 You may take more money from a sloppy trade in a big expensive market than from an elegant entry and exit in a difficult narrow market。 Which of them reveals a higher level of skill? Money is important but it doesn’t always provide the best measure of success。
市场给每笔交易打分,并贴在墙上,只是大部分交易者不知道去哪里看。一些人数自己的钱,但这个方法太原始,无法给不同的市场和不同的价格打分。你也许在昂贵的市场赚的钱比在狭窄的市场赚得钱多。哪个反映了你的水平高低呢?钱很重要,但不是最好的计算成功的方法。
Channels help us grade the quality of our trades。
通道能帮助我们给自己的交易质量打分。
When you enter a trade; measure the height of the channel from the upper to the lower line。 If you use daily charts to find trades; measure the daily channel; if you use a 10…minute chart; measure the channel on a 10…minute chart; and so on。 When you exit that trade; calculate the number of points you’ve taken as a percentage of the channel。 That is your performance grade。
当你交易时,计算通道上线和下线之间的距离。如果你用日线图,计算日线的通道;如果你用10分钟图,计算10分钟图的通道,以此类推。如果你平仓了,用百分比计算你赚了多少。这就是你的分数。
If a stock is trading at 80 with a 10% channel; then the upper channel line is at 88 and the lower at 72。 Suppose you buy that stock at 80 and sell it at 84。 If you take 4 points out of the 16…point channel; then your grade is 4/16 or 25%。 Where does that place you on the rating curve?
如果你的股票在80交易,通道采用10%的系数,那么通道上线是88,下线是72。假如你在80买入,84卖出。16点的通道,你赚了4点,那么你的成绩是4/16或者是25%。
Any trade where you take 30% or more out of a channel earns you an A。 If you take between 20 and 30%; your grade is a solid B。 If you grab between 10 and 20%; you earn a C。 You get a D by taking less than 10% out of a channel or running a loss。
如果你一笔交易的成绩是30%或以上,你的评级是A。如果你的成绩是20%——30%,你的评级是B。如果你的成绩是10%——20%,你的成绩是C。如果你的成绩低于10%或者亏损,你的评级是D。
Good traders keep good records。 Your first essential record is a spreadsheet of all your trades (we’ll review this in Chapter 8; “The Organized Trader”)。 Add two columns to your spreadsheet。 Use the first to record the height of the channel when you enter the trade。 Use the second to calculate what percentage of that channel you’ve grabbed exiting that trade。 Keep monitoring your grades to see whether your performance is improving or deteriorating; steady or erratic。 Back in college; professors used to grade you。 Now you can use channels to find out your grades and bee a better trader。
优秀的交易者做优秀的交易记录。你的第一个重要交易记录是你所有交易的电子表格(我们会在“第08章有条理的交易者”谈这个)。在你的电子表格加两栏。第一栏在交易时记录通道的高度。第二栏是你出场时你的赢利百分比。坚持做记录,看看你的成绩是进步或退步,稳定或不稳定。回到大学,教授总是给你评分。现在你可以用通道来计算你的分数,并成为优秀的交易者。
What Markets to Trade? Channels can help us decide which stocks or futures to trade and which to leave alone。 A stock may have great fundamentals or beautiful technical signals; but measure its channel before you put on a trade。 It’ll show you whether the swings are wide enough to be worth trading。
交易什么市场?通道会告诉我们选择什么股票或期货,以及放弃什么市场。一只股票也许有很好的基本面或漂亮的技术信号,但是要在交易前计算它的通道。它会告诉你这个波动是否足够大,是否值得交易。
You may look at a volatile stock whose channel height is 30 points。 If you are an A trader; you should be able to get 30%; or 9 points; out of a trade。 That will be more than enough to pay missions; cover slippage; and leave you with profits。 On the other hand; if you look at an inexpensive stock whose channel is only 5 points high; then an A trader would be shooting for a paltry 1。5…point gain。 That would leave you with next to nothing after missions and slippage … leave that stock alone; no matter how good it looks。
也许你会看着波动的股票,它的通道是30点。如果你是交易者,你交易时应该得到30%,或是9点。这样才会在支付佣金,弥补滑点亏损以后有利润。另外,如果你看见昂贵的股票,它的通道只有5点,那么交易者只能得到微薄的1。5点收益。如果去掉佣金和滑点亏损,你什么都没得到——放弃那样的股票,不管看起来多么好。
What if your performance slips a bit or the market throws you a curve? What if you earn only a C and take only 10% out of a channel? The first stock; with its 30…point channel; will return 3 points profit … enough to make some money after expenses。 The stock with a 5…point channel will return only half a point; and missions and slippage may push you into negative territory! Beginners are often seduced by low…priced stocks with strong technical patterns。 They cannot understand why they keep losing money。 When there is no room for the stock to swing; a trader can’t win。
如果你的成绩下降,或者是市场陷害你,怎么办?如果你的成绩是C,你只赚到了通道的10%,怎么办?第一只股票,通道是30点,会返回3点的利润——去掉费用,还是有足够的利润。股票的通道只有5个点,它的回报是半个点,佣金和滑点亏损能把你搞成亏损!新手特别喜欢有强烈技术模式,同时又便宜的股票。他们不明白自己为何总是亏钱。如果股票没有波动的空间,交易者就无法赢。
A good technical analyst who was slowly losing money called me for a consultation。 When I asked him to fax me his charts; he showed 10 and 15 stocks whose channels were only 2 to 4 tall。 There was simply no room for price swings; while missions; slippage; and expenses continued to chip away at his equity。 If you’re going to support yourself by fishing; find a channel where the fish are big enough。
一个技术派的人,总是在慢慢亏钱,他打电话给我,请我做顾问辅导。当我叫他把图表传真给我时,他传给我的股票是10元,15元的,通道仅仅是2——4元的空间。这根本没有波动的空间,而且佣金,滑点亏损和费用都会吃掉他的资金。如果你想去捕鱼,最好找个有大鱼的地方。
Once you bee interested in a new stock; draw a channel to see whether it’s wide enough to trade。 We like to think of ourselves as A traders and all…around A people; but what if you pull only a C trade? If you take only 10 percent out of this channel; will it be worth trading? Beginning traders should leave alone any stock whose channel is narrower than 10 points; meaning that a C trader can take one point out of it。
一旦你对一个新股票产生了兴趣,画一个通道,看看是否足够大。我们喜欢把自己想成A交易者,如果我们得分仅仅是C,该怎么办?如果你只赚了通道的10%,这值得交易吗?新手应该放弃通道小于10点的股票,这意味着C交易者赚不到钱。
A few traders said to me it was OK to trade stocks with narrrow channels; as long as one increased trading size。 They think that trading 10;000 shares in a three…point channel is the same as trading 1;000 shares in a 30…point channel; but it is not; because the ratio of slippage to channel is much higher in narrow channels; raising the external barrier to victory。
个别交易者对我说,可以交易通道很窄的股票,只要交易仓位增大就行了。他们以为交易通道为3点的股票10000股和交易通道为30点的股票1000股,道理是一样的。但错了,因为滑点亏损的比例在窄通道太高了,增加了取胜的障碍。
Low…priced stocks with slender channels can make good investments。 Think of Peter Lynch; a famous money manager; looking for his elusive 10…bagger; a stock that goes up 10…fold。 A 5 stock is much more likely to rise to 50 than an 80 stock to rally to 800。 But those are investments; not trades。 As a trader; you are looking to take advantage of short…term swings。 That is why you should not waste your energy on any stock whose channel is narrow。
低价,通道很窄的股票可以成为好的投资对象。想想彼得·林奇,著名的基金经理,他说到了10垒打,要找能涨10倍的股票。一只5元的股票涨到50元的概率比80元的股票涨到800元的概率大。但那是投资,不是交易。作为交易者,你要找短期波动的优势。这就是不要浪费精力找通道窄的股票的原因。
The Rewards of Day…Trading Day…trading seems deceptively easy; and beginners flock to it like moths to a flame。 Amateurs look at intraday charts and see strong rallies and steep declines。 It looks like the money is there for the picking by any sharp…witted individual with a puter; a modem; and a live data feed。 Day…trading firms make fortunes in missions。 They promote day…trading because they need to replace the great majority of customers who flame out。 The firms hide customer statistics from the public; but in the year 2000 state regulators in Massachusetts subpoenaed records which showed that after 6 months only 16% of day…traders made money。
日内交易的回报 日内交易看起来很轻松,新手飞蛾扑火般地做日内交易。业余选手看着日线图,发现了强烈的上涨和下跌。看样子只要聪明的人准备好了电脑,调制解调器和即时波动,那么就可以捡钱了。日内交易做市商靠佣金致富。他们宣扬日内交易是因为他们需要新的客户来代替已经亏损的客户。做市商总是向大众隐瞒统计数据,2000年马萨诸赛州管理层的传唤记录说明,在半年内,只有16%的日内交易者赚钱了。
There is an old Russian saying: “your elbow is near; yet you can’t bite it。” Try it now … stretch your neck; bend your arm; go for it。 So near; yet so far。 It’s the same with day…trading … the money is right in front of your face; yet you keep missing it by a few ticks。 Why do so many people lose so much money day…trading? There is simply not enough height in intraday c
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