owd members； it is fatally flawed in assuming that investors and traders are rational human beings who always strive to maximize gains and minimize losses。 That is a very idealized view of human nature。 Most traders can be rational on a fine weekend when the markets are closed。 They calmly study their charts and decide what to buy and sell； where to take profits； and when to cut losses。 When the markets open on Monday； the best laid plans of mice and men get ripped up in the sweaty palms of traders。
我认为有效市场理论是其中一个能真实地反映市场的理论。我也认为这是最大的垃圾理论。这个理论正确地解释了市场反映大众的智慧，但错误地认为投资者和交易者都是理性的，他们会一直扩大收益并缩小亏损。这是对人性的理想看法。大多数交易者在周末收盘时是理性的。他们会冷静地研究图标，决定买什么，卖什么，何处兑现利润，何处止损。当周一开盘时，他们就算有最好的计划，也会被市场上下洗盘，体无完肤。
Trading and investing are partly rational and partly emotional。 People often act on an impulse even if they harm themselves in the process of doing so。 A winning gambler brags about his positions and misses sell signals。 A fearful trader beaten up by the market bees cautious beyond measure。 As soon as his stock ticks down a bit； he sells； violating his own rules。 When that stock rises； overshooting his original profit target； he can no longer stand the pain of missing the rally and buys way above his planned entry point。 The stock stalls and slides； and he watches； first with hope and later frozen in horror； as it sinks like a rock。
交易和投资部分是理性，部分是情绪。人们经常会冲动，却在冲动的时候害了自己。一个赢利的赌徒因为吹嘘自己的仓位而错过了卖出信号。交易者被市场教训以后变得过分谨慎。当股票跌了一点点，他就卖了，违反了自己的原则。当股票上涨，超过了目标价格时，他担心错过了反弹，在自己的计划价格之上买入。股票下跌了，他看着，一开始还抱希望，最后看见股票像石头一样下沉，吓呆了。
In the end； he can’t take any more pain and sells out at a loss … right near the bottom。 What’s so rational about this process？ The original plan to buy may have been rational； but implementing it created an emotional storm。 Emotional traders do not pursue their best long…term interests。 They are too busy savoring the adrenaline rush or too twisted in fear； desperate to extract their fingers from a mousetrap。 Prices reflect intelligent behavior of rational investors and traders； but they also reflect screaming mass hysteria。 The more active the market； the more traders are emotional。 Rational individuals can bee a minority； surrounded by those with sweaty palms； pounding hearts； and clouded minds。 Markets are more efficient during flat trading ranges； when people are apt to use their heads。 They grow less efficient during trends； when people bee more emotional。 It is hard to make money in flat markets because your opponents are relatively calm。 Rational people make dangerous enemies。 It is easier to take money from traders who are excited by a fast…moving trend because emotional behavior is more primitive and easier to predict。 To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs。
最后，他终于无法忍受痛苦，亏损卖出——正好在底部附近。这个过程中哪里表现了理性？最初的买入计划可能是理性的，但是在执行时产生了很大的情绪变化。情绪交易者不是为了追求长期的收益。他们受情绪的控制，或者被恐惧折磨，绝望地要把手指从老鼠夹里面拿出来。价格反映了投资者和交易者的理性和聪明，同时它也反映了市场里的歇斯底里。市场波动越激烈，交易者越情绪化。在一个平静的市场很难赚钱，因为你的对手相对冷静。理性的人是你的敌人。从看见快速波动就激动的交易者身上赚钱是很容易的，因为情绪行为是最原始的，容易预测。要想成为成功的交易者，你必须始终保持冷静，从爱激动的业余选手身上赚钱。
People are more likely to be rational when alone； and grow more impulsive when they join crowds。 A trader’s intense focus on the price of a stock； a currency； or a future pulls him into the crowd of all who trade that vehicle。 As the price ticks up and down； the eyes； the heads； and the bodies of traders across the continents start moving up and down in unison。 The market hypnotizes traders like a magician hypnotizes a snake； by moving his flute rhythmically up and down。 The faster the price moves； the stronger the emotions。 The more emotional a market； the less efficient it is； and inefficiency creates profit opportunities for calm； disciplined traders。
人在独处的时候比较理性，和大众在一起的时候则比较冲动。一个交易者关注股票、外汇或者期货时，很容易把自己和大众拉近。当价格上下波动时，全世界的眼睛、脑袋和身体会一起上下摆动。市场对人的催眠作用就像魔术师催眠蛇一样，有节奏地吹笛子。当价格波动的越快，情绪越强烈。当市场的情绪越强，市场越无效，无效的市场为冷静的，有纪律的交易者制造了赚钱机会。
A rational trader can make money by remaining calm and following his rules。 Around him； the crowd chases rallies； hard with greed。 It sells into falling markets； squealing from pain and fear。 All the while； the intelligent trader follows his rules。 He may use a mechanical system or act as a discretionary trader； reading his markets and putting on trades。 Either way； he follows his rules rather than his gut … that is his great advantage。 A mature trader pulls money through the big hole in the efficient market theory； its presumption that investors and traders are rational human beings。 Most people aren’t； only winners are。
一个理性的交易者可以依靠冷静和原则赚钱。在他的周围，大众在抢反弹，非常贪婪。在下跌的市场中，反弹是卖出的好时机，造成痛苦和恐惧。同时，聪明的交易者坚守自己的原则。他要么使用机械交易系统，要么自己交易，了解市场并进行交易。不管怎么说，他都是按照自己的原则做，而不是凭自己的胆子大——这是他最大的优势。有效市场理论认为投资者和交易者都是理性的，而成熟的交易者却从这个漏洞里赚钱。大部分人都不会赚钱，只有赢家才能赚钱。
What Is Price？
什么是价格？
Each trade represents a transaction between a buyer and a seller who meet face to face； by phone or on the Internet； with or without brokers。 A buyer wants to buy as cheaply as possible。 A seller wants to sell as expensively as possible。 Both feel pressure from the crowd of undecided traders that surrounds them； ready to jump in and snatch away their bargain。
每笔交易都发生在买家和卖家之间，他们通过见面，电话或互联网交易，或许通过经纪公司交易，或许没通过经纪公司交易。买家想尽量买便宜的。卖家想尽量卖贵点。买家和卖家都会感受到周围大众的压力，大众随时会抢夺他们的交易机会。
A trade takes place when the greediest buyer； afraid that prices will run away from him； steps up and bids a penny more。 Or the most fearful seller； afraid of getting stuck with his merchandise； agrees to accept a penny less。 Sometimes a fearful seller dumps his merchandise on a calm and disciplined buyer waiting for a trade to e to him。 All trades reflect the behavior of the market crowd。 Each price flashing on your screen represents a momentary consensus of value among market participants。
每笔交易发生在2种情况下，贪婪的买家担心价格会上涨，愿意用高价买入。或者是恐惧的卖家担心价格会跌，愿意用更低的价格卖出。有时候，恐惧的卖家会把他的商品卖给了冷静，有纪律，耐心等待的买家。所有的交易反映了市场大众的行为。每一次屏幕价格的变动都代表了市场参与者在某一瞬间对价值的一致认同（张轶注：作者在后面会一直使用这个结论）。
Fundamental values of panies and modities change slowly； but prices swing all over the lot because the consensus can change quickly。 One of my clients used to say that prices are connected to values with a mile…long rubber band； allowing markets to swing between overvalued and undervalued levels。
公司和商品的基本价值变化比较慢，但是价格却变化很快，因为大众对价格的认同变化很快。我的一个客户常说，价格和价值之间是1英里长的橡皮筋，这样市场就能在过分高估和过分低估之间来回波动。
The normal behavior of the crowd is to mill around； make noise； and go nowhere。 Once in a while a crowd bees excited and explodes in a rally or a panic； but usually it just wastes time。 Bits of news and rumors send ripples through the crowd； whose shifts leave footprints on our screens。 Prices and indicators reflect changes in crowd psychology。
大众的正常行为是左右摇摆，制造噪音，哪里都没去成。有时大众会在反弹或恐慌时激动暴躁，但通常都是浪费时间。一些新闻和传闻会给大众带来变化，他们的变化在电脑上留下了痕迹。价格和指标随着大众心理变化。
When the market gives no clear signals to buy or sell short； many beginners start squinting at their screens； trying to recognize trading signals。 A good signal jumps at you from the chart and grabs you by the face … you can’t miss it！ It pays to wait for such signals instead of forcing trades when the market offers you none。 Amateurs look for challenges； professionals look for easy trades。 Losers get high from the action； the pros look for the best odds。
如果市场没有明确的买卖或做空信号，很多新手就会盯着屏幕，想找到交易信号。一个很好的信号出现了，它抓着你的脸——千万不要错过！如果市场没有信号，就要耐心地等信号，而不是强行交易。业余选手总是找挑战，专业人士则是找有把握的交易。输家在交易时追求激情；专业人士追求最好的机会。
Fast…moving markets give the best trading signals。 When crowds are gripped by emotions； cool traders find their best opportunities to make money。 When markets go flat； many successful traders withdraw； leaving the field to gamblers and brokers。 Jesse Livermore； a great speculator of the twentieth century； used to say that there is time to go long； time to go short； and time to go fishing。
快速波动的市场就是最好的交易信号。当大众被情绪左右时，冷静的交易者会发现最好的赚钱机会。当市场平静之后，很多成功的交易者就出场了，把战场留给赌徒和经纪商。20世界最伟大的投机者杰西·利弗莫尔常常说，有时候要做多，有时候要做空，有时候要去钓鱼。
AN INTELLIGENT GAMBLER？
聪明的赌徒？
Most people gamble at some point in their lives。 For most it provides entertainment； for some it bees an addiction； while a few bee pros and make a living at it。 Gambling provides a living for a very small minority and entertainment for the masses； but a casual gambler reaching for a quick buck has the same chance of success as an ice cube on a hot stove。
大多数人在一生中或多或少赌博过。大多数情况是为了娱乐， 部分人会上瘾，只有少数专业人士以此为生。极少数人以赌博为生，大多数人以赌博为娱乐。但是赌徒想赚快钱，成功机会和火炉上的冰块一样小。
Some famous investors like betting on horses。 They include Peter Lynch； of Magellan Fund fame； and Warren Buffett； who used to publish a newsletter on handicapping。 My friend Lou； to