nager； writes that he only buys stocks in panies that are so simple that an idiot could run them … because eventually one will。 But Lynch is an investor； not a trader。 Stocks of many panies with little fundamental value can embark on fantastic runs； making heaps of money for bullish traders before collapsing and making just as much money for the bears。
交易哪个股票呢？美国有10000多个股票，国外的更多。彼得·林奇是一个成功的基金经理，他说如果一个公司很简单，连傻瓜都能管理好，那么他就会买这个公司的股票——因为肯定有人能管理好。但林奇是投资者，不是交易者。很多公司，基本面不怎么好，但是股票能狂涨，股价崩溃前能让做多的交易者赚到很多钱，同样下跌时也能赚到这么多钱。
The stock market offers a wealth of choices； even after we cut out illiquid or flat stocks。 You open a business newspaper； and stories of fantastic rallies and breathtaking declines leap at you from the pages。 Should you jump on the bandwagon and trade stocks in the news？ Have they moved too far from the gate？ How do you find future leaders？ Having to make so many choices stresses beginners。 They spread themselves thin； jumping between stocks instead of focusing on a few and learning to trade them well。 Newbies who cannot confidently trade a single stock go looking for scanning software that will let them track thousands。
即使不考虑那些不活跃的，交易平淡的股票，股市还是提供了致富的机会。你随便打开一张报纸，都会看到暴涨或者暴跌的股票故事。你会不会根据新闻的线索见风使舵来炒股呢？他们是不是已经跑的很远了？你如何发现未来的领头羊？太多的选择让新手感到压力。他们不知道重点研究几个股票，也不知道如何做好交易，他们什么都学，以致什么都没学好。新手对一个股票没有把握，他就寻找软件，让软件帮他同时跟踪几千个股票。
In addition to stocks； you can choose from their kissing cousins； mutual funds； called unit trusts in Europe。 Long…term investors tend to put money into diversified funds which hold hundreds of stocks。 Traders tend to focus on sector funds that let them trade specific sectors of the economy or entire countries。 You pick a favorite sector or country and leave individual stock selection to the supposedly hot…shot analysts laboring at those funds。
除了股票，你还可以选择相关的共同基金。长线投资者喜欢把钱投入到各种各样的基金，因为基金会买几百种股票。交易者关注行业基金，因为他们可以针对经济的特点交易，也可以选择投资到某个国家的基金。你可以选择喜欢的经济面或者国家，让著名的基金分析师帮你选股票吧。
Choosing a winning stock or fund is a lot harder than listening to tips at a party or scanning headlines in a newspaper。 A trader must develop a set of fundamental or technical search parameters； have the discipline to follow his system； and spread a safety net of money management under his account。 We will delve into all three areas in Part 2。
选择一个赚钱的股票或基金比听消息要难多了，也比研究报纸难多了。交易者必须形成自己的一套基本面分析或技术面分析的参数，要遵守自己的系统，还要有出色的资金管理。我们会在第2部分详细讨论这些问题。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ How to Buy Stocks by Louis Engel is the best introductory book for stock investors and traders。 The author died years ago； but the publisher updates the book every few years … be sure to get the latest edition。
能告诉我如何开始吗？路易斯·安吉尔写的《股票指南》（张轶注：国内译名）是最好的入门书。作者在几年前死了，但是出版社会每过几年就更新一次——一定要买最新的版本。
FUTURES
期货
Futures look dangerous at first … nine out of ten traders go bust in their first year。 As you look closer； it bees clear that the danger is not in futures but in the people who trade them。 Futures offer traders some of the best profit opportunities； but the dangers are mensurate with rewards。 Futures make it easy for gamblers to shoot themselves in the foot； or higher。 A trader with good money management skills needn’t fear futures。
期货一开始看起来很可怕——10个人里面有9个会在第1年被淘汰。当你看近点，你会发现期货并没有风险，而是交易的人有风险。对有些交易者来说，期货提供了最好的赚钱机会，但是风险总是伴随着回报。期货很容易让赌徒开枪打中自己的脚，又或者是打的太远。如果一个交易者有很好的资金管理，他不必害怕期货。
Futures used to be called modities； the irreducible building blocks of the economy。 Old…timers used to say that a modity was something that hurt when you dropped it on your foot … gold； sugar； wheat； crude oil。 In recent decades many financial instruments began to trade like modities … currencies； bonds； stock indexes。 The term futures includes traditional modities along with new financial instruments。
过去期货叫商品，是经济中不可缺少的元素。过去人们喜欢说商品就是你掉在地上砸自己脚的东西——黄金，糖，小麦，原油。最近几十年，很多金融工具开始出现，它们类似商品——外汇，债券，股指期货。期货这个说法包括了传统的商品和新的金融工具。
A future is a contract to deliver or accept delivery of a specific quantity of a modity by a certain date。 A futures contract is binding on both buyer and seller。 In options the buyer has the right but not an obligation to take delivery。 If you buy a call or a put； you can walk away if you like。 In futures； you have no such luxury。 If the market goes against you； you have to add money to your margin or get out of your trade at a loss。 Futures are stricter than options but are priced better for traders。
期货就是一个合约，这份合约规定在未来的确定日期交割确定数量的商品。一份期货合约同时绑定了买家和卖家。如果是期权，买家有权利接受交割，但不是义务。如果你买了看涨期权或者看跌期权，你也可以随时出场。但是期货不同。如果市场对你不利，你需要追加保证金，或者是止损出场。期货比期权严格，但是价格适合交易者。
Buying a stock makes you a part owner of a pany。 When you buy a futures contract you don’t own anything； but enter into a binding contract for a future purchase of merchandise； be it a carload of wheat or a sheaf of Treasury bonds。 The person who sells you that contract assumes the obligation to deliver。 The money you pay for a stock goes to the seller； but in futures your margin money stays with the broker as a security； ensuring you’ll accept delivery when your contract es due。 They used to call margin money honest money。 While in stocks you pay interest for margin borrowing； in futures you can collect interest on your margin。
买入股票，你就成了一个公司的拥有者。当你买入期货合约时，你并不拥有什么，只是买了一个合约，合约规定未来的商品买卖，比如是一车小麦，或者是一些债券。卖给你的人有义务交割。买股票时，你的钱给了卖家。但是买期货时，你的保证金在经纪公司那里作为保证，以保证你的合约到期时，你会接受交割。他们喜欢说保证金是诚实的金钱。买股票时，如果你借用保证金，是要支付利息的，买期货时，你的保证金可以为你带来利息。
Each futures contract has a settlement date； with different dates selling for different prices。 Some professionals analyze their differences to predict reversals。 Most futures traders do not wait and close out their contracts early； settling profits and losses in cash。 Still； the existence of a delivery date forces people to act； providing a useful reality check。 A person may sit on a losing stock for ten years； deluding himself it is only a paper loss。 In futures； reality； in the form of the settlement date； always intrudes on a daydreamer。
每份期货合约都有一个确定的日期，不同的日期代表不同的价格。有些专业人士会分析它们的差别以找到反转点。大部分期货交易者都不会等太久，它们会提前把期货卖掉，利润和亏损都是用现金结算的。期货的交割日期决定了很多人要去兑现，故需要检查现实的状况。一个人可以持有亏损的股票长达10年，欺骗自己说这只是账面亏损。对于期货，只要日期到了，一相情愿的人就惨了。
To understand how futures work； let’s pare a futures trade with a cash trade … buying or selling a quantity of a modity outright。 Let’s say it’s February and gold is trading at 400 an ounce。 Your analysis indicates it is likely to rise to 420 within weeks。 With 40；000 you can buy a 100…ounce gold bar from a dealer。 If your analysis is correct； in a few weeks your gold will be worth 42；000。 You can sell it and make a 2；000 profit； or 5 percent before missions … nice。 Now let’s see what happens if you trade futures based on the same analysis。
为了了解期货的原理，我们拿期货和现金交易对比——买卖一些商品。假如说2月黄金的价格是400元/盎司。你的分析是说它很可能在几周内涨到420元。你可以用40000元买100盎司。如果你的分析是对的，你的黄金在几周内会涨到42000元。你可以把它卖掉并得到2000元的利润，或者是5％的利润，未扣除手续费——很不错。好了，我们再来看看，如果分析是对的，期货是什么样子。
Since it is February； April is the next delivery month for gold。 One futures contract covers 100 oz。 of gold； with a value of 40；000。 The margin on this contract is only 1；000。 In other words； you can control 40；000 worth of gold with a 1；000 deposit。 If your analysis is correct and gold rallies 20 per oz。； you’ll make roughly the same profit as you would have made had you bought 100 oz。 of gold for cash … 2；000。 Only now your profit is not 5％ but 200％； since your margin was 1；000。 Futures can really boost your gains！
现在是2月，4月是黄金期货的交割月。一份期货合约代表100盎司的黄金，价值就是40000元。保证金只要1000元。换句话说，你用1000元控制了价值40000元的黄金。如果你的分析正确，黄金真的涨了20元/盎司，你买了100盎司，你就会赚到同样的利润，现金就是2000元。现在你的利润不是5％，而是200％，因为你的保证金只交了1000元。期货真的能提高收入。
Most people； once they understand how futures work； are flooded with greed。 An amateur with 40；000 calls his broker and tells him to buy 40 contracts！ If his analysis is correct and gold rallies to 420； he’ll make 2；000 per contract； or 80；000。 He’ll triple his money in a few weeks！ If he repeats this just a few times； he’ll be a millionaire before the end of the year！ Such dreams of easy money ruin gamblers。 What； if anything； do they overlook？
大部分人，如果明白了期货的原理，就会变得非常贪婪。一个有40000元的业余选手会打电话给他的经纪人，要求买40份合约！如果他的分析正确，黄金涨到了420元，他每份合约能赚2000元，一共能赚80000元。只要几周时间，他的资金就翻倍了！如果他再重复做几次，在年底之前他就是百万富翁了！这样的赚钱梦害了赌徒们。那么，他们忽视了什么？
The trouble with markets is that they don’t move in straight lines。 Charts are full of false breakouts； false reversals； and flat trading ranges。 Gold may well rise from 400/oz。 to 420/oz。； but it is perfectly capable of dipping to 390 along the way。 That 10 dip would have created a 1；000 paper loss for someone who bought 100 oz。 of gold for cash。 For a futures trader who holds a