1；000 paper loss for someone who bought 100 oz。 of gold for cash。 For a futures trader who holds a 100 oz。 contract on a 1；000 margin that 10 decline represents a total wipeout。 Long before he reaches that sad point； his broker will call and ask for more margin money。 If you have mitted most of your equity to a trade； you’ll have no reserves and your broker will sell you out。
最麻烦的就是市场并不按照直线走。图表充满了假突破，假反转以及横盘。黄金也许会从400元/盎司涨到420元/盎司，但也有可能在这个过程中跌到390元。如果有人买了100盎司，那么这10元的下跌会造成1000元的账面亏损。对于期货交易者，如果买了100盎司，10美元的下跌意味着出局。在他出局之前，他的经纪人就会打电话给他，要求他补保证金。如果你已经投入了大部分资金，没有更多的资金投入，你的经纪人会帮你平仓。
Gamblers dream of fat profits； margin themselves to the hilt； and get kicked out of the game by the first wiggle that goes against them。 Their long…term analysis may be right and gold may rise to its target price； but the beginner is doomed because he mits too much of his equity and has very thin reserves。 Futures do not kill traders … poor money management kills traders。
赌徒都梦想暴利，把所有的保证金送到刀口上，市场的第一次反向波动就把他清理出局了。也许他们的长期分析是对的，黄金也许会涨到目标价格，但是新手还是遭殃了，因为他投入的保证金太多了，没有回旋的余地。期货不会让交易者破产——糟糕的资金管理会让交易者破产。
Futures can be very attractive for those who have strong money management skills。 They promise high rates of return but demand ice…cold discipline。 When you first approach trading； you are better off with slower…moving stocks。 Once you have matured as a trader； take a look at futures。 They may be right for you if you’re very disciplined。 We return to the futures markets in Part 2 and look at the best ones for getting started。
对于资金管理能力特别好的人来说，期货很有吸引力。他们运用冰冷的纪律，却能取得很高的回报。如果你刚开始交易，还是建议你选择变动慢的股票。一旦你成为一个成熟的交易者，建议你研究一下期货。如果你非常有纪律，期货会适合你的。我们会在第2部分谈期货，也会谈如何起步。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ Winning in the Futures Markets by George Angell is the best introductory book for futures traders。 （It is highly superior to all his other books。） The Futures Game by Teweles and Jones is a mini…encyclopedia that has educated generations of futures traders （be sure to get the latest edition）。 Economics of Futures Trading by Thomas A。 Hieronymus is probably the most profound book on futures； but it’s long been out of print … try finding a used copy。
能告诉我如何开始吗？乔治·安吉尔写的《期货教战守策》（张轶：台版译名）是最好的入门书（他写的其它书都没这本好）。理查德·j·特维莱斯和弗兰克·j·琼斯写的《期货赛局》（张轶注：台版译名，国内翻译成《期货交易实用指南》）是一本小百科全书，已经教育了几代期货交易者（一定要买最新版）。托马斯·A·海欧纳莫斯写的《期货交易经济》恐怕是最深刻的期货书，但是早就绝版了——尽量去找2手的。
OPTIONS
期权
An option is a bet that a specific stock； index； or future will reach or exceed a specific price within a specific time。 Please stop and reread that sentence。 Notice that the word specific occurs in it three times。 You must choose the right stock； predict the extent of its move； and forecast how fast it’ll get there。 You must make three choices … if you’re wrong on just one； you’ll lose money。
期权就是打赌，赌在确定的时刻确定的股票、股指期货或者是期货能够达到或超过确定的价格。请停下来，再读一次。请注意，确定这个词用了3次。你必须选择正确的股票，预测它运动的程度，还要预测它运动的快慢。你必须做3个决定——就算你只错了1个，你就会亏钱。
When you buy an option； you have to jump through three hoops in a single leap。 You have to be right on the stock or the future； right on its move； and right on its timing。 Ever tried tossing a ball through three rings at an amusement park？ This triple plexity makes buying options a deadly game。
当你买期权的时候，等于1次跳进了3个圈子。你必须选到正确的股票或期货，必须对它的波动方向判断正确，必须在时间上判断正确。在娱乐场是否玩过把1只球扔进3个圈？同时要确定3个复杂的因素，所以说期权是致密的游戏。
Options offer leverage … an ability to control large positions with a small outlay of cash。 The entire risk of an option is limited to the price you pay for it。 Options allow traders to make money fast when they’re right； but if the market reverses； you can walk away and owe nothing！ This is the standard flow of brokerage house propaganda。 It attracts hordes of small traders who cannot afford to buy stocks but want a bigger bang for their buck。 What usually gets banged is the option buyer’s head。
期权提供了杠杆——支付很少的现金，却可以控制很大的仓位。期权的风险仅仅是你付的钱。如果交易者判断正确，可以利用期权赚快钱，但是如果市场反转，你就什么都没有了！这是经纪公司的标准宣传语。很多资金量小的交易者买不起股票，他们喜欢买期权，希望期权能让自己的钱实现漂亮的一击，但更多情况下是交易者的头上受到一击。
My pany； Financial Trading； Inc。； has been selling books to traders for years。 Whenever a person es back to buy another book； it is a sign that he is active in the markets。 Many clients buy books on stocks or futures every few months or years。 But when a first…time buyer orders a book on options； he never returns。 Why？ Does he make so much money so fast that he doesn’t need another book？ Or does he wash out？
我的金融交易公司过去几年经常卖书给交易者。只要有交易者再来买书，就说明他在市场中很活跃了。很多客户每几个月或几年买一些股票或期货书。但是，如果一个人第一次买的是期权书，他就再也不来了，为什么？是不是他赚了很多钱，不必再来了？还是破产了？
Many beginners buy calls because they can’t afford stocks。 Futures traders who get beat up sometimes turn to options on futures。 Losers switch to options instead of dealing with their own inability to trade。 Using a shortcut to weasel out of trouble instead of facing a problem never works。
很多新手买期权是因为买不起股票。期货交易者被期货害惨了，也会转而去做期权。输家不检查自己错在哪里，却喜欢转做期权。有困难，自己不解决，却去找捷径，这是不可取的。
Successful stock and futures traders sometimes use options to reduce risks or protect profits。 Serious traders buy options rarely and only in special situations； as we will see later in this book。 Options are hopeless for poor people who use them as substitutes for stocks because they can’t afford the real thing。
成功的股票和期货交易者有时利用期权来降低风险或保护利润。认真的交易者很少买期权，只有在特殊情况下才会买，本书后面会谈到。对于穷人来说，买不起股票，就买期权做替代的想法是没有希望的。
Professionals take full advantage of starry…eyed beginners crowding into options。 Their bid…ask spreads are terrible。 If an option is bid 75 cents； offered at a dollar； you are 25％ behind the game as soon as you buy。 The expression “your loss is limited to what you paid for an option” means you can lose 100％！ What’s so great about losing everything？
当过分乐观的新手抢着买期权时，专业人士会利用这个优势。新手的买入价和卖出价很混乱。如果市场的买入报价是75分，卖出报价是1元，当你买入的时候，你就亏了25％（张轶注：这个和外汇市场一样，某个货币，银行的买入报价是0。9元，卖出报价是1元，这意味着我们只能1元买入，0。9元卖出。也就是说，我们在市场中总是容易吃亏）。有句话说“你的亏损仅仅限于你买期权的钱”，意思就是说你会100％的亏损！输光了很伟大吗？
A client of mine was a market…maker on the floor of the American Stock Exchange。 She came to my classes on technical analysis because she was pregnant and wanted to get off the floor and trade from home。 “Options；” she said； “are a hope business。 You can buy hope or sell hope。 I am a professional … I sell hope。 I e to the floor in the morning and find what the public wants。 Then I price that hope and sell it to them。”
我的一个客户是美国股票交易所的场内做市商。因为她怀孕了，不方便在场内交易，她想在家里交易，她就来上我的技术分析课。她说：“做期权就是做希望的生意。你可以买希望，也可以卖希望。我是专业人士——我卖希望。每天早上，我走进交易所场内，先看看大众想要什么。然后我把希望定个价，就可以卖给大众了。”
Professionals are more likely to write options than buy them。 Writing is a capital…intensive business。 You need hundreds of thousands of dollars to do it right； and most successful options writers operate with millions。 And even theirs is not a risk…free game。 Several years ago a friend who used to be one of the nation’s top money managers landed on the front page of The Wall Street Journal after he lost 20 years’ worth of profits in a single bad day of writing naked puts。
专业人士大多喜欢发行期权（张轶注：很有趣的赚钱方法，可惜中国只有券商才可以这么做），而不喜欢买期权。发行期权是一种赚钱的生意。只要几百元到几千元就可以操作，有些成功的人操作的资金高达几百万。这不是没有风险的游戏。我的一个朋友曾经是全国最出名的基金经理之一，一天，他发行了一个看跌期权，结果把20年的利润都亏掉了，为此上了《华尔街日报》的封面。
There are two types of option writers。 Covered writers buy a stock and write an option against it。 Naked writers write calls and puts on stocks they don’t own； backing their writes with cash in their accounts。 Writing naked options feels like taking money out of thin air； but a violent move can put you out of business。 Writing options is a serious game； suitable only for disciplined and well…capitalized traders。
有2种发行期权的人。第1种买入股票，再发行期权。第2种人发行的期权针对他自己根本没有的股票，他们利用账户里的资金做保证。发行看跌期权就像是在空气里抓钱，但是一个凶猛的波动就会让你破产。发行期权是一个很严肃的游戏，只有有纪律，资金管理能力强的交易者适合做。
Markets are like pumps that suck money out of the pockets of the poorly informed majority and pump it into the pockets of a savvy minority。 People who service those pumps； such as brokers； vendors； regulators； and even janitors who sweep exchange floors； are paid from the stream of money flowing through the markets。 Since markets take money from the majority； pay help； and give what’s left to the savvy minority； the majority； by definition； must lose。 You can be sure that whatever the majority of traders does； believes； and says； is not worth doing； believing； and saying。 You have to stand apart from the crowd in order to succeed。 Smart traders look for situations where a large majority does something one way； while a small； moneyed minority goes the opposite way。
市场就像一个泵，它把大多数穷人口袋里面的钱泵到少数聪明人的口袋里。为市场服务的人，比如经纪人，�