5 cents； worth 50 each。 He quickly figures that if he catches just a half of a day’s range； he’ll make over 500 per contract in the S&P； whereas the same level of skill will bring him just a little over 100 in corn。 Mr。 Hare calls his broker and buys two contracts of the S&P。
想象一下有两个交易者，兔子先生和乌龟先生，各有一个50000元的账户，他们正在观察两个期货市场——标准普尔和玉米。机敏的兔子先生注意到标准普尔的平均日价格区间约5 点，每份合约的价格为250元。玉米的平均日价格区间为5分，每份合约为50元。他很快就得出结论。如果他只能抓住日价格区间的一半，那么在标准普尔每份合约可以赚500元，而使用同样水平的技巧，在玉米中只能赚100元多一点。兔子先生打电话给他的经纪人，要求买两份标准普尔合约。
The cautious Mr。 Turtle has a different arithmetic。 He begins by setting the maximum risk in his account at 2％ or 1；000。 Trading the S&P； moving over 1；000 a day with such a small account； is like grabbing a very large tiger by a very short tail。 If； on the other hand； he trades corn； he’ll have a lot more staying power。 That tiger is smaller and has a longer tail； which he can wrap around his wrist。 Mr。 Turtle buys a contract of corn。 Who is more likely to win in the long run； Mr。 Hare or Mr。 Turtle？
但谨慎的乌龟先生却有着不同的算法。首先，他使用2％原则计算出自己账户的最大可承受风险资金1000元。在标准普尔中，在这样的小账户，一天只动用1000元，就像去抓一只个头非常大，但尾巴非常短的老虎一样。另一方面，如果他交易玉米，他就有更大的生存能力。那只老虎要小一些，而且有一条可以缠在腰上的长尾巴。乌龟先生买了一份玉米的合约。那么在兔子先生和乌龟先生中，谁最终将取得胜利呢？
To find out which futures markets you may or may not trade； measure your equity against the recent level of market noise。 Begin by calculating 2％ of your account。 Measure the level of noise with the SafeZone indicator； calculate its 22…day EMA； and translate that into dollars。 Do not trade any market whose average noise level is more than 1％ of your equity。 If you follow this rule； you’ll trade relatively sedate markets where you can safely place your stops。 Why 1％ and not 2％？ Because your 2％ stop will have to be more than the average noise level away from the market。
在期货市场中选择期货商品时，比较一下你的资金和近期的市场波动水平。首先计算出你的账户资金的2％。使用安全区域指标度量波动水平，计算出其22日均线，并将结果化为金额。如果平均波动水平高于你账户资金的1％，就不要交易那只期货。如果你遵守这条原则，你所选择的市场相对来说是比较稳定的，可以比较安全地设置止损。为什么是1％，而不早2％呢？因为在市场中，你的2％止损必须大于平均波动水平。
The first column in the spreadsheet in Table 7。1 lists the market； the second the value of one contract； the third the current SafeZone indicator； and the fourth multiplies SafeZone by two。 The fifth column lists 2％ of the account value； in this case 30；000。 The last column pares the value of SafeZone multiplied by two to 2％ of the account。 If the latter is greater than the former； that market is OK to trade。
表7。1的第一列是期货市场，第二列是每份合约的价格，第三列是当前的安全区域，第四列是用安全区域指标乘以2所得结果。第五列是账户资金的2％ ，此处账户资金为30000元。最后一列比较两倍的安全区域指标与账户资金2％。如果后者大于前者，那个市场就适合交易。
The values in Table 7。1 are current as this is being written； but have to be updated monthly because volatility changes and SafeZone with it。 The exchanges occasionally modify contracts and change unit values。 Use this table only as an example and a starting point。 Do your homework； plug in the current numbers； and find out which contracts you may or may not trade。
表7。1中的数据，在我写作时的当前值，因为波动性和安全区域都在不断变化，所以你在使用时，必须每月更新。交易所有时会修改合约，并更改每份合约的价格。这个表格只是作为一个例子。供你开始选择期货市场时参考。使用时改为最新数据，并找出哪些期货市场适合你交易。
If you cannot afford to trade a certain market； you can still download it； do your homework； and paper trade it as if you were doing it with real money。 This will prepare you for the day when your account grows big enough or the market grows quiet enough for you to jump in。
如果你没有足够的资金交易某个期货市场，你仍然可以下载它，做好准备工作，并进行模拟交易，就像真实的交易一样。这样，当你的账户足够大或某个期货市场变得足够平静时，就可以很有准备地进入交易了。
Table 7。1 OK to Trade Spreadsheet
表7。1 期货市场选择表
期货
单价
安全区域
2倍安全区域
30000的2％
是否交易
债券
1；000
0。33
660
600
否
欧元
2；500
0。09
450
600
是
标准普尔
250
10。00
5；000
600
否
瑞士法郎
1；250
0。40
1；000
600
否
日元
1；250
0。38
950
600
否
德国马克
1；250
0。26
650
600
否
现金
1；000
0。21
420
600
是
白糖
1；120
0。11
246
600
是
棉花
500
0。63
630
600
否
咖啡
375
1。70
1；275
600
否
可可
10
24。00
480
600
是
贵金属
420
1。84
1；546
600
否
取暖油
420
2。11
1；772
600
否
原油
420
0。76
638
600
否
银
5；000
0。09
900
600
否
黄金
100
1。80
360
600
是
铜
250
1。05
525
600
是
小麦
50
2。60
260
600
是
玉米
50
2。50
250
600
是
大豆
50
6。50
650
600
否
豆油
600
0。30
360
600
是
豆粕
100
2。60
520
600
是
THE 6％ RULE … PROTECTION FROM PIRANHAS
6％原则——防食人鱼
It used to puzzle me why institutional traders as a group performed so much better than private traders。 An average private trader is a 50…year…old married； college…educated man； often a business owner or a professional。 You would think this thoughtful； puter…literate； book…reading individual would run circles around some loud 25…year…old with minimal training who used to play ball in college and hasn’t read a book since his junior year。 In fact； the lifetime of most private traders is measured in months； while institutional traders continue to make money for their firms year after year。 Is it because of their fast reflexes？ Not really； because young private traders wash out just as fast as older ones。 Nor do institutional traders win because of training； which is skimpy in most firms。
令我不解的是，为什么机构交易者的表现比个人交易者要好那么多。个人交易者一般都是50岁左右，已婚，大学毕业，通常是某一方面的专家，或者有自己的公司。你可以仔细思考一下，为什么那些精通计算机，整天读书的人们会围着25岁左右，在大学时经常玩球，毕业后就再没读过书的人们团团转。实际上，大多数个人交易者的交易寿命是以月为度量单位的，而机构交易者却年复一年为他们的公司赚进大笔的钱。是因为他们反应敏捷吗？不对，年轻的个人交易者也像年龄大的一样被淘汰。要不就是因为机构交易者有大量的培训机会，但事实上大多数公司都吝啬得很。
Institutional traders who make a lot of money sometimes decide to go out on their own。 They quit the firm； lease the same gear； trade the same system； stay in touch with their contacts … and fail。 A few months later； most cowboys are back in head…hunters’ offices； looking for a trading job。 How e they make money for the firms but not for themselves？
一些机构交易者，在为公司赚了一大笔钱以后，就想自己出去单干。他们退出公司后，在同样的市场，用同样的交易系统交易，并与他们的同行保持密切联系——等待他们的却是失败。几个月后，大部分牛仔们又回到猎头公司去找操盘的工作。为什么他们能为公司赚钱，却不能为自己赚钱呢？
When an institutional trader quits his firm； he leaves behind his manager； the person in charge of discipline and risk control。 That manager sets the maximum risk per trade for each trader。 That is similar to what a private trader can do with the 2％ Rule。 Firms operate from huge capital bases； and the risk limit is much higher in dollar terms but tiny in percentage terms。 A trader who violates that limit is fired。 A private trader can break the 2％ Rule and hide it； but a manager watches his traders like a hawk。 A private trader can throw confirmation slips in a shoebox； but a trading manager quickly gets rid of impulsive people。 He saves institutional traders from disastrous losses； which destroy many private accounts。
当一个机构交易者辞职以后，就离开了那个帮他掌握纪律和控制风险的经理。那个经理为每个交易者的每笔交易设定最大风险，这类似个人交易者的2％原则。投资公司资金雄厚，其风险上限金额如果以美元计的话非常大，但占总资本的百分比却很小。如果交易者越过那个上限，则将被辞退。个人交易者可以打破2％原则，并自欺欺人地隐瞒起来，但投资公司的经理却像老鹰一样一直盯着他的交易者。个人交易者可以把原则扔进鞋盒里，但经理很快就会把那些容易冲动的交易者辞退，他使机构交易者免受重大亏损，而正是这种重大亏损使得许多个人账户破产。
In addition； a trading manager sets the maximum allowed monthly drawdown for each trader。 When an employee sinks to that level； his trading privileges are suspended for the rest of the month。 We all go through cycles。 Sometimes we’re in gear with the markets； and everything we touch turns to gold。 At other times we are out of sync； and everything we touch turns into a pletely different substance。 You may think you’re hot； but when you keep losing； it is the market’s way of saying you’re cold。
另外，经理还为每个交易者设置了当月最大允许亏损额。当某个交易者的亏损达到那个水平时，在那个月的剩余时间里，会暂时取消他的交易权利。我们总在不停地绕圈，有时我们与市场之间非常和偕，有种点石成金的感觉。而有时我们却与市场不同步，所过之处都是障碍重重。你可能认为自己是正确的，但当你持续亏损时，就是市场在以其独特的方式说你是错误的。
Most private traders on a losing streak keep trying to trade their way out of a hole。 A loser thinks a successful trade is just around the corner； and that his luck is about to turn。 He keeps putting on more trades and increases his size； all the while digging himself a deeper hole in the ice。 The sensible thing to do would be to reduce your trading size and then stop and review your system。 A trading manager breaks his traders’ losing streaks by forcing them to stop after they reach their monthly loss limit。 Imagine being in a room with co…workers who are actively trading； while you sharpen pencils and run out for sandwiches。 Traders do all in their power to avoid being in that spot。 This social pressure creates a serious incentive not to lose。
大多数个人交易者在持有正在亏损的仓位时，竭力想打成平局。输家认为一笔成功交易即将来临，他就要时来运转了。他不断增加交易次数，不断增加交易金额，其实是在自掘坟墓。明智的做法应该是减小交易金额，并停下来检查一下自己的系统。经理在其交易者达到当月最大�