。 Here； in this chapter； I want to illustrate the analytic process for you。
优秀的交易者以资金管理开始，以资金管理结束。6％原则首先会告诉你是否要交易。然后，在你下单前，根据进场点和止损点的距离，2％原则告诉你最大的仓位。除此之外就是做分析。本章我想用图告诉你分析过程。
Shocking but true； most people who write books on trading do not trade。 In putting together their books； they rely on the power of well…chosen hypothetical examples。 The only people obligated to disclose their track records are money managers。 I trade my own money and feel no need to lay my full accounting open to curiosity seekers。 Still； you trusted me enough to buy this book。 Since all trust is mutual； I want to reciprocate by showing you some of my trades。
让人吃惊的是，大多数写交易书的人自己不交易。为了写书，他们依靠精心选出的虚假例子。只有基金经理才会被要求公开交易记录。我用自己的钱交易，我没有必要把我的账户向好奇的人公开。然而，你还是相信我，买了我的书。因为信任都是相互的，我就把我的部分交易公开作为回报。
Here are a few trades I executed in recent months。 It is important that all of them have already been closed out。 One of the worst things a trader can do is reveal his open trades； putting his ego on the line and gumming up the decision…making process。 pleted trades are history； from which we may learn。
这些是我最近几个月的交易。重要的是都平仓了。交易者做的最糟糕的事就是公布自己的仓位，为了自负而暴露离决策过程。平仓的交易是历史，我们可以学习。
These charts show how one trader makes his buy and sell decisions。 Mine are based primarily on Triple Screen trading system … making strategic decisions in the longer timeframe and tactical decisions in the shorter timeframe。 Whenever I put on a trade； I print out its charts and mark key signals that prompted me to act。 Whenever I close a trade； I print out its charts again and mark up those signals that prompted me to exit。 I may write a few lines on how I first became aware of a potential trade； how I felt entering and exiting； and so on。 I try not to write a dissertation on every trade； and record only the key factors； aiming for speed and brevity。
这些图表明了交易者如何如何做买卖决定。我的方法建立在三重滤网交易系统的基础上——在长周期做策略决定，在短周期做战术决定。无论何时我建仓，我会把图表打印出来，并把提示进场的信号标记出来。无论何时我平仓，我再次打印图，并把提示出场的信号标记出来。我也许会多说几句，谈谈我第一次是如何发现潜在的机会的，如何感觉到进场和出场，等等。我不会把交易当论文写，只写关键因素，尽量快速，简洁。
My journal； a hard…cover spiral…bound album； sits on a bookshelf in my trading room。 I sometimes e into that room in the evening； sprawl in an armchair； and review my trades； one after another。 Some pages are pleasant； others painful； but all are educational。
在我的书房书架里有我的硬皮交易日记。我有时晚上走进去，躺在扶手椅里，分析我的交易，一个又一个。有些地方很高兴，有些地方很痛苦，但是都有教育作用。
As you go looking for trades； please do not feel as if you have to find the same patterns as shown here。 This is just a brief excerpt from one man’s diary … a few of the trades made in recent months。 Also； trading is intensely personal； with different people reacting to different aspects of the game。 There are many ways to make money in the markets and even more ways to lose it。 My main purpose in showing you a few pages from my diary is to prompt you to begin documenting your trades in order to learn from your own experience。
当你寻找交易机会时，不要以为你能找到本书一样的模式。这只是一个人交易日记的摘录——最近几个月的一些交易。而且，交易是很个人的事，不同的人对游戏不同方面有不同的反映。有很多方法在市场赚钱，还有更多的亏钱方法。我的主要目的是告诉你我日记中的一些内容，引导你自己做交易日记，并从你的经验中学习。
EXCERPTS FROM THE DIARY
日记摘要
Charts in my trading diary are printed in color and marked up by hand。 ments； written on margins； are telegraphic and abbreviated。 In preparing this manuscript for publication； I had to print those charts in black and white rather than color； while slightly expanding my ments to make them easier to understand。
我交易日记中的图表用彩色印刷，我用手做了标记。评语，写在空白处，电报体，缩写。为了出版，我做了手工图，我宁愿用黑白印刷，不想用彩色，同时增加了我的平均，以方便阅读。
Showing strangers your trading diary feels almost like inviting them into the bedroom during an intimate moment。 As we grow older； we care less and less about what others think of us； I do not believe I could have shown you my diary just a few years ago。
给陌生人看自己的交易日记，感觉就像邀请他们到我的卧室。当我们年老时，我们越来越不在乎别人怎么说我们了。几年前，我也不会给你看我的日记。
The key question is； What are you going to do with it？ Will you casually flip through the pages？ Will you go through them slowly； evaluating each trading signal？ Will you feel overwhelmed？ Will you feel critical； especially of trades with less than perfect scores？ Before I turn my records of six recent trades over to you； I have just one question。 Will you be keeping your own diary？ If my example has inspired you； I will have achieved my goal。
关键问题是，你要怎么办？你是随便翻翻吗？你会认真通读吗，评估每个交易信号？你会感觉无法相信吗？当你看见得分不高的交易，你会觉得重要吗？当我把最近6个交易记录告诉你之前，我有一个问题。你会自己做交易日记吗？如果我的例子能启发你，我就实现了目标。
Trade 1 … Long CSCO
交易1——做多思科
The stock market has been falling for a year； accelerating in recent months。 In a Traders’ Camp a month prior to this trade I asked a guest instructor； a famous expert； what panies will be left standing at the bottom of a severe economic； as well as financial； decline； that is； what stocks to buy amid the ruins。 His answer … BGEN； CSCO； and IBM。 I included all three in my weekly scan of the market。
股市跌了一年，最近几个月加速下跌。在做这个交易之前的一个月，在交易者训练营，我问一个客座老师，他是著名的专家，在艰难的经济底部，金融下跌的时候，什么公司会站起来，也就是说，在废墟中买什么股票。他的答案是——生物科技，思科和IBM。我把这3只股票作为我每周观察的对象。
Figure 10。1 Weekly Entry
图10。1 周线图上的进场点
Figure 10。2 Daily Entry 1
图10。2 日线图上的进场点1
Figure 10。3 Daily Entry 2
图10。3 日线图上的进场点2
ENTRY
进场
Weekly： CSCO has lost over 85％ of its value； but this pany is not going to disappear like some silly dot…。 Weekly trading ranges have bee narrow； the bars near the right edge are only a couple of dollars wide； pared with 10 bars a year ago。 This is a sign that speculative excesses have been squeezed out。 Weekly MACD…Histogram has been rising for the past six weeks at the right edge … bullish。 Weekly price is as far below its EMA as it was above it at the top in 2000； the “rubber band” that connects price to the EMA is overextended； ready to snap back。
周线图：思科下跌超过85％，但这个公司不会像一些傻瓜式的互联网公司一样消失。周线图上的波动区间变窄了，在图的右边，竹线只有几元的高度，1年前一条竹线有10元高。这说明很多投机者已经出场了。周线图上，右边，MACD柱已经涨了6周——多头。周线图上，2000年成顶以后，价格一直在均线下面。连接价格和均线的“橡皮筋”拉的太长，准备弹回来。
Daily： Massive bullish divergence between price and MACD…Histogram。 See how strong bears were at bottom A； weaker at bottom B； and now； at C； with prices much lower； bears hardly have any power。 Moreover； there is a rarely seen bullish divergence B…C between price and MACD…Lines。 Triple bullish divergence A…B…C between two…day Force Index and price shows that each recent attempt to drive prices lower was weaker than before。 This divergence is shouting to buy now because it reveals that bears are out of steam and bulls are about to seize control。
日线图：价格和MACD柱形成了严重的看涨背离。看看空头在A点是多么强，在B点变弱了，现在在C点，价格更低，空头已经没劲了。另外，B，C之间价格和MACD线也形成了一个不容易看见的看涨背离。A，B，C之间2日力量指数和价格的3个看涨背离说明每一次砸盘的力量都在减弱。这个背离大喊买入，因为它表明空头没力气了，多头要接受控制权了。
Action： Long on 4/9/2001 at 13。91； with a stop at 13。18； below the latest low。
交易计划：200年4月9日以13。91的价格买入，止损在13。18，比最新的低点低的地方。
Figure 10。4 Exit
图10。4 出场
EXIT
出场
Daily： Prices snapped back slightly above their EMA； working off the over…sold condition； and appear to have stalled。 The two…day Force Index is tracing a bearish divergence A…B； showing that the rally of the past three days is weaker than during the previous week。
日线图：价格反弹，涨到均线上面一点点，超卖不再严重，似乎要停下来了。2日力量指数在AB区间跟踪到看跌背离，表明过去3天的反弹比之前一周要弱。
Action： Sold longs on 4/20/2001 at 18。85。 Trade rating 55％ （took 4。94 out of a 9…point channel）。
交易计划：在2001年4月20日以18。85的价格卖出。交易得分55％（9点的通道宽度，赚了4。94点）。
Trade 2 … Long GX
交易2——做多横穿全球电信公司
Different stocks often trace similar patterns within a few days of each other。 If you figure out what the leaders are doing； you can start looking for similar patterns in the laggards。 A friend drew my attention to GX when she called to ask my opinion on a handful of stocks that she liked。 Its patterns looked remarkably similar to CSCO； which was already running in my favor。
不同的股票会在几天内互相走类似的路线。如果你知道领头羊是怎么走的，你可以期待落后的股票也走类似的模式。一个朋友给我打电话，问我对一大把股票有什么看法，横穿全球引起了我的注意。它的模式看起来像思科，思科已经为我赚钱了。
Figure 10。5 Weekly Entry
图10。5 周线图 进场点
Figure 10。6 Daily Entry 1
图10。6 日线图进场点1
Figure 10。7 Daily Entry 2
图10。7 日线图进场点2
ENTRY
进场
Weekly： GX has lost over 80％ of its value。 Prices are as deep below their weekly EMA as they have ever been； just above the 10 psychological support level。 Both MACD…Histogram and MACD…Lines are tracing massive bullish divergences （A…B…C and B…C； respectively）。
周线图：横穿全球下跌了80％。价格跌到了有史以来的均线下面，仅仅在10元心理支撑上面一点。MACD柱和MACD线都跟踪到了巨大的看涨背离（分别在A…B…C和B…C）。
Daily： Bullish divergence between MACD…Histogram and price A…B shows that bears are being weaker； prices are falling out of inertia； and no great selling pressure exists。 Seven trading days ago there was a false breakout below 10； and the rightmost bar is declining to retest that level。 The bottom of the previous week’s break provides a logical stop…loss point。 The two…day Force