a natural progress of things； which may guide our reasoning。 As
it would have required but a moderate share of prudence； when we
first began this practice of mortgaging； to have foretold； from
the nature of men and of ministers； that things would necessarily
be carried to the length we see； so now； that they have at last
happily reached it； it may not be difficult to guess at the
consequences。 It must； indeed； be one of these two events； either
the nation must destroy public credit； or public credit will
destroy the nation。 It is impossible that they can both subsist；
after the manner they have been hitherto managed； in this； as
well as in some other countries。
There was； indeed； a scheme for the payment of our debts；
which was proposed by an excellent citizen； Mr HUTCHINSON； above
thirty years ago； and which was much approved of by some men of
sense； but never was likely to take effect。 He asserted； that
there was a fallacy in imagining that the public owed this debt；
for that really every individual owed a proportional share of it；
and paid； in his taxes； a proportional share of the interest；
beside the expence of levying these taxes。 Had we not better；
then； says he； make a distribution of the debt among ourselves；
and each of us contribute a sum suitable to his property； and by
that means discharge at once all our funds and public mortgages？
He seems not to have considered； that the laborious poor pay a
considerable part of the taxes by their annual consumptions；
though they could not advance； at once； a proportional part of
the sum required。 Not to mention； that property in money and
stock in trade might easily be concealed or disguised； and that
visible property in lands and houses would really at last answer
for the whole： An inequality and oppression； which never would be
submitted to。 But though this project is not likely to take
place； it is not altogether improbable； that； when the nation
becomes heartily sick of their debts； and is cruelly oppressed by
them； some daring projector may arise with visionary schemes for
their discharge。 And as public credit will begin； by that time；
to be a little frail； the least touch will destroy it； as
happened in FRANCE during the regency。 and in this manner it will
die of the doctor。
But it is more probable； that the breach of national faith
will be the necessary effect of wars； defeats； misfortunes； and
public calamities； or even perhaps of victories and conquests。 I
must confess； when I see princes and states fighting and
quarrelling； amidst their debts； funds； and public mortgages； it
always brings to my mind a match of cudgel…playing fought in a
China shop。 How can it be expected； that sovereigns will spare a
species of property； which is pernicious to themselves and to the
public； when they have so little compassion on lives and
properties； that are useful to both？ Let the time come （and
surely it will come） when the new funds； created for the
exigencies of the year； are not subscribed to； and raise not the
money projected。 Suppose； either that the cash of the nation is
exhausted； or that our faith； which has hitherto been so ample；
begins to fail us。 Suppose； that； in this distress； the nation is
threatened with an invasion； a rebellion is suspected or broken
out at home； a squadron cannot be equipped for want of pay；
victuals； or repairs； or even a foreign subsidy cannot be
advanced。 What must a prince or minister do in such an emergence？
The right of self…preservation is unalienable in every
individual； much more in every community。 And the folly of our
statesmen must then be greater than the folly of those who first
contracted debt； or； what is more； than that of those who
trusted； or continue to trust this security； if these statesmen
have the means of safety in their hands； and do not employ them。
The funds； created and mortgaged； will； by that time； bring in a
large yearly revenue； sufficient for the defence and security of
the nation： Money is perhaps lying in the exchequer； ready for
the discharge of the quarterly interest： Necessity calls； fear
urges； reason exhorts； compassion alone exclaims： The money will
immediately be seized for the current service； under the most
solemn protestations； perhaps； of being immediately replaced。 But
no more is requisite。 The whole fabric； already tottering； falls
to the ground； and buries thousands in its ruins。 And this； I
think； may be called the natural death of public credit： For to
this period it tends as naturally as an animal body to its
dissolution and destruction。
So great dupes are the generality of mankind； that；
notwithstanding such a violent shock to public credit； as a
voluntary bankruptcy in ENGLAND would occasion； it would not
probably be long ere credit would again revive in as flourishing
a condition as before。 The present king of FRANCE； during the
late war； borrowed money at lower interest than ever his
grandfather did； and as low as the BRITISH parliament； comparing
the natural rate of interest in both kingdoms。 And though men are
commonly more governed by what they have seen； than by what they
foresee； with whatever certainty； yet promises； protestations；
fair appearances； with the allurements of present interest； have
such powerful influence as few are able to resist。 Mankind are；
in all ages； caught by the same baits： The same tricks； played
over and over again； still trepan them。 The heights of popularity
and patriotism are still the beaten road to power and tyranny；
flattery to treachery； standing armies to arbitrary government；
and the glory of God to the temporal interest of the clergy。 The
fear of an everlasting destruction of credit； allowing it to be
an evil； is a needless bugbear。 A prudent man； in reality； would
rather lend to the public immediately after we had taken a spunge
to our debts； than at present； as much as an opulent knave； even
though one could not force him to pay； is a preferable debtor to
an honest bankrupt： For the former； in order to carry on
business； may find it his interest to discharge his debts； where
they are not exorbitant： The latter has it not in his power。 The
reasoning of TACITUS； as it is eternally true； is very applicable
to our present case。 Sed vulgus ad magnitudinem beneficiorum
aderat： Stultissimus quisque pecuniis mercabatur： Apud sapientes
cassa habebantur； quoe neque dari neque accipi； salva republica；
Poterant。 The public is a debtor； whom no man can oblige to pay。
The only check which the creditors have upon her； is the interest
of preserving credit； an interest； which may easily be
overbalanced by a great debt； and by a difficult and
extraordinary emergence； even supposing that credit
irrecoverable。 Not to mention； that a present necessity often
forces states into measures； which are； strictly speaking；
against their interest。
These two events； supposed above； are calamitous； but not the
most calamitous。 Thousands are thereby sacrificed to the safety
of millions。 But we are not without danger； that the contrary
event may take place； and that millions may be sacrificed for
ever to the temporary safety of thousands。 Our popular
government； perhaps； will render it difficult or dangerous for a
minister to venture on so desperate an expedient； as that of a
voluntary bankruptcy。 And though the house of Lords be altogether
composed of proprietors of land； and the house of Commons
chiefly； and consequently neither of them can be supposed to have
great property in the funds。 Yet the connections of the members
may be so great with the proprietors； as to render them more
tenacious of public faith； than prudence； policy； or even
justice； strictly speaking； requires。 And perhaps too； our
foreign enemies may be so politic as to discover； that our safety
lies in despair； and may not； therefore； show the danger； open
and barefaced； till it be inevitable。 The balance of power in
EUROPE； our grandfathers； our fathers； and we； have all deemed
too unequal to be preserved without our attention and assistance。
But our children； weary of the struggle； and fettered with
incumbrances； may sit down secure； and see their neighbours
oppressed and conquered； till； at last； they themselves and their
creditors lie both at the mercy of the conqueror。 And this may
properly enough be denominated the violent death of our public
credit。
These seem to be the events； which are not very remote； and
which reason foresees as clearly almost as she can do any thing
that lies in the womb of time。 And though the ancients
maintained； that in order to reach the gift of prophecy； a
certain divine fury or madness was requisite； one may safely
affirm； that； in order to deliver such prophecies as these； no
more is necessary； than merely to be in one's senses； free from
the influence of popular madness and delusion。
The End